Slybacon Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) Goal - To create a sustainable and finacially viable digital coin mining system powered by a combination of Solar/Grid. Then seek funding to purchase and install system. With the introduction of high end mining cards high GH/s makes mining more profitable then ever. There is also the opportunity to hedge your efforts accross several emerging digital currencys. The viability of the project hinges on the stability of digital currency exchange prices and the difficulty of solving a blockchain.Current Bitcoin Difficulty -609,482,680Current Bitcoin Price at 2pm Friday 22nd November 2013-$748Reward For Solving One Block @ Current Exchange Rate ($748)25BC ($18700 USD)Time Frame Required to Solve One Block @ 50 GH/s (Giga Hash per Second) @ Current Difficulty244 days to 1 YearTo be accurate we will need to prodict the rate of difficulty increase in order to get the true time to solve one block. This can be somewhat predicted using the above metrics. Even at Double the calculation difficulty we would still be able to solve one block in 3 years @ 50GH.Dedicated mining hardware can now produce up to 600 GH/s from a single card. The card can run on 350W with and extra 100W for the rest of the computer. So we can achieve 600 GH/s for a mere 450W. This means we can power this system with a 600W solar system by day and switch to off peak grid at night. This would make the running costs pretty cheap, but what about the initial outlay?COMPUTERMotherboard $150CPU $150Bitcoin Mining Card 600 GH/s $468080plus Gold PSU $250Case $150HDD $100Operating System $100SOLAR SYSTEMSolar Panels 200W x 3 $1185Frames $250108 Ah 12v Batteries x 2 $750SB3024 $575XTS 1200 / 24 $1600Relay Set up $50Remote $379Cables and Accesories $200Enclosure $350Labour $500Extra Expenses $500TOTAL COSTS$11919OUTPUT600 GH/sCONSUMPTION450WTime to Solve One block @ 609,482,68011 Hours to 50 DaysI will factor in some more detailed calculations soon, and include analysis of other digital currency but with recent advancements in hardware and soaring digital currency values I can see this as being a very viable venture. We need now to do some more detailed calculations and predictions and come up with a sensible proposal. We should be able to get a prototype proof of concept together with cheaper componants and stuff we already own, but Im very excited to see if this can work. Stay tuned Edited November 22, 2013 by Slybacon 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripsis Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Sounds great, though I know very little about what you speak of. If it's so easy to make such good money with current technology, why isn't everyone doing it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndianDreaming Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) Have you considered using FPGA's or ASICS? The power savings would outweigh the initial cost of the device, especially since you're considering solar...https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparisonEdit: Ah, I see you have 'Bitcoin Mining Card 600 GH/s $4680' - What sort? Edited November 22, 2013 by IndianDreaming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) This study is based on current conditions, which are favourable. Mining Card technology has only just improved to a point where you can produce high hash rates for low power consumption. The market is also very volitile for example, in this month alone saw the market capitalization peak at 8.9 Billion and fell to 6.9 Billion in a metter of days. Without governed backing or anything real assests to value it against big investors aren't interested (yet), and most everyday people have either never heard of it or aren't even interested in it. Try and spark up a converstaion about bitcoins at work or the pub and have a look at the reactions you get. I think its so new and risky people are shying away. I truely don't know if it will be viable, under current conditions it certainly looks that way. Its a matter of who is right, in predictions moving forward. Some companies are building rigs and renting under mining contracts. Who would of known, "DIGITAL FUCKING MINING CONTRACTS!!"Thats some psyfi shit right there, or nerd central whatever way you look at it. Theses contract ensure finacial stubility by leasing by the GH. $10.98 per GH/s. The risk of the market is then on the contract owner whilst the equipment owners can plan with finacial security.PS - Typing Fail..... Not my highlight! Edited November 22, 2013 by Slybacon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) Have you considered using FPGA's or ASICS? The power savings would outweigh the initial cost of the device, especially since you're considering solar...https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparisonMonarch BPU 600 Chttps://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage-new-products/600-gh-bitcoin-mining-card.html If it went ahead Edited November 22, 2013 by Slybacon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_T Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 yes but when will that card ship... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_T Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) ideally we want 4 of those cards, each person buying in has a card each etc and yes it is an ASIC, so its pretty much useless for anything BUT mining. same card i was looking into but there's problems with shipments and people not getting them until many many months later, and some not at all... its a high risk business atm.but with high risk comes possible reward, just don't put anything you cant afford into it. Edited November 22, 2013 by C_T 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndianDreaming Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Sounds like a lot of fun at the very least Sly! I know very little about bitcoins, apart from my friend that used to nail me down at the pub and hammer me with bitcoin talk The variability of the market makes it even more fun IMO, and you might kick yourself in a year if you don't go ahead...Is it possible to use each of the 4 cards individually? As I understand it, a block takes a variable amount of time - as you mentioned, approx. 0.5 to 50 days. It makes more sense to mine multiple blocks in this case than to pump all your power into a single block.Thelma? Are you here - you might be able to work out what's best probability wise - focus on a single block or split across 4 blocks... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_T Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) that comes down to whether you join a mining pool, where lots mine for the same block and its distributed regular pieces of the btcor you mine your own block individually, that takes balls hehemore hardware just means better return each day, putting you further up the pyramid of processing power. which is where you kinda need to stay Edited November 22, 2013 by C_T Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndianDreaming Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Seems like buying coins just after SR went down would have been a wise investment... ah hindsight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sallubrious Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How many hours a day would this setup be operating?I might be missing something here but your battery rating seems under spec to me.If it was to run off battery power in the dark period, wouldn't it need a much larger capacity (this is if you intend to mine 24/7)?12 hours(dark period) * 450 watts = 5400 watt hours5400 watt hours / 12 volt = 450 amp hours. You could halve that with a 24 volt system, with 36 volts you could divide the amp hour rating by 3, then there would be some losses at the conversion back to 12volts or at the inverter etc.and that's running at 100 % capacity for the full night without any consideration for discharge levels and no consideration for losses at connections & relays ect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Nice Point, and very true. We weighed up the price of batteries and decided its cheaper to use the grid at off peak times. The batteries allow the system to work in cloudy periods or when you are switching to grid power. We haven't finished collecting the data for comparison but once the spreadsheet is finished we should have a clear picture. The Aim is 24hour Mining at the cheapest possible / hour price. We think we can find the balance between battery / solar / grid. Its very preliminary at this stage but I couldn't help but share the data givin the current bitcoin conditions, thought it might inspire others and we could draw inspiration from other people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sallubrious Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Sory about that Sly I misread your OP, I have a tendency to speedread in phrases or paragraphs and sometimes miss a few details.How would the economics work out if you were to charge the batteries on off peak for use the following day and use the grid during off peak billing and then do away with the solar setup ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) Hey thats not a bad idea.... I'll look into that.Was also considering Grid Feeding the Solar to Offset the Rig as well. So many scenarios to build spreadsheets for. Edited November 22, 2013 by Slybacon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sallubrious Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) Obviously the solar would be the ultimate goal, but it could be a way to cut costs in the interim.I don't think it's technically legal, but for a relatively low current draw it could fly under the radar, especially if you don't have a smartmeter. even then you could wire into the hot water system circuit (depending on the billing rate) and it would be hard to detect. Edited November 22, 2013 by Sally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Bitcoins trading at $875 AUD today!Just calculated that 450W Mining rig will only cost $1200 per year to run. Kinda makes solar un feasable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndianDreaming Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Maybe see if you can find the solar gear second hand or free - if you keep an eye out something might come up. Some house being demolished with panels or something... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teonanacatl Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yeah I was going to say I live off solar, but if I had grid power something that small Id just run it via the grid. Not worth the hassles. Id run it on off peak times. Just look at the variation on power around australia, pick somewhere with a low rate and put it there.Also charging batteries on off peak to run during peak is inefficient so you probably wont win out. Id just bite the bullet and run it on grid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigred Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Look into wind and making a program that will let you boost hash rate during peak power production.As it seems cheaper to have more bitcoin mining power than back up battery power . So during the daywhen your panels are putting peak out and a bit of wind power on the side . It would be better if you could usethat extra power to boost your mining power . The batteries can be bought on the cheap testra replaces all therebackups every two years they use big 2volt batteries so you will need six to make a 12volt circuit. Just a question can you get computers to run on 12v dc as it would save heaps on inverting costsand power loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 (edited) Something Has to give here. Butterfly Labs offer Cloud Based Bitcoin Mining at $10.83 - 1 GH/s. If you were to compound the earnings back into more GH/s you would see the income start to grow at what appears to be an unsustainable level. With half of all bitcoins already in exsistence, if demand remained constant we should only see a 50% reduction in bitcoin trade price should the other half be mined overnight. All the Bitcoin hardware seems to be sold out in a multi million dollar digital gold rush. As the saying went, the best money to be made in a gold rush is selling shovels!. So what is the risk and the downside? Here is some scenarios to consider-$1083 Invested in 100 GH/s then Compounded for 6 Months- (@ Current BC Trade Price of 797.98 USD)Buy In - $1083 for 100 GH/shttps://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage-new-products/1-gh-cloud-hosted-bitcoin-hashing-power.htmlMonth 1 - 100 GH/s = $2460.52 / $10.83Month 2 - 227 GH/s = $5585.39Month 3 - 515 GH/s = $12671.70Month 4 - 1170 GH/s = $28788.13Month 5 - 2658 GH/s = $65400.73Month 6 - 6038 GH/s = $148566.44TOTAL PROFIT $147484.44 (Plus 6038 GH/s 6 months 50% = $30190)The above scenario is the best case, I can't see the difficulty increasing to much over the 9 month period (15% maybe) and with more and more merchants accepting bitcoins it may very well go up before it goes down. I will run some more numbers and include difficulty increases I just wanted to get a basic idea on paper to see how it looks. Verdit - Very Fucking Tasty!$1083 Invested in 100 GH/s then Compounded till Break Even- ( After a Crash BC Trading @ $100 USD)Buy In - $1083 for 100 GH/sMonth 1 - 100 GH/s = $246Month 2 - 122 GH/s = $300Month 3 - 149 GH/s = $366Month 4 - 182 GH/s = $447Month 5 - 223 GH/s = $548Month 6 - 273 GH/s = $672Month 7 - 335 GH/s = $824Month 8 - 411 GH/s = $1011Month 9 - 504 GH/s = $12409 Months for $157 Profit and 504 GH/s for the next 3 months, and then it would drop by the rate it increased monthly untill your contracts expire considering you stopped compounding at the breakeven spot.... Like thisMonth 10 - 504 GH/sMonth 11 - 504 GH/sMonth 12 - 504 GH/sMonth 14 - 404 GH/sMonth 15 - 382 GH/sMonth 16 - 355 GH/sMonth 17 - 322 GH/sMonth 18 - 281 GH/sMonth 19 - 231 GH/sMonth 20 - 169 GH/sMonth 21 - 93 GH/s (CONTRACT EXPIRE)In this scenario you would have $9072 in your account after 21 months if the bitcoin value remained at a mere $100 and the difficulty did not increase. Currently they are trading for $850 AUD. Virgin just started excepting Bitcoins as payment for some of its services so chances are it will go up before it goes down!There are so many ways you can look at this. What I am failing to understand is the effect a rush will have on computaional difficulty. If a huge surge in bitcoin miners suddenly got involved what figures and by how much would this effect the viability of mining. With Cloud mining it seems to be a bit easier to manage. The maths on the above is very very rough and If anyone would like to correct me that would be awesome, its very interesting I just wonder for how long this can keep going.NOTES:http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/Extrapolating bitcoin difficulty or price is pure voodoo. It is much easier to predict the relationship of the two parameters in form of the Mining Factor. The Mining Factor 100 is the value in USD of the bitcoins you can generate if you let a 100MHash/s miner run for 24 hours. If the Mining Factor 100 rises above $2 or so everybody buys mining equipment and thus increases difficulty. If it falls people will stop mining eventually. The estimate starts with the current Mining Factor and decreases it exponentially such that the decrease accounts for the factor decline per year. Please note that a profit/loss by holding the coins is not accounted for in this estimate. Edited November 26, 2013 by Slybacon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndianDreaming Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Seems odd to me that if Butterfly Labs has that sort of computing power - why wouldn't they just mine the coins with it themselves and reap the 'profit' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
at0m Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Seems odd to me that if Butterfly Labs has that sort of computing power - why wouldn't they just mine the coins with it themselves and reap the 'profit'Their profit is when they accepted BTC for their orders over 2 years ago when bitcoin was worth MUCH less than it is now. The miners people bought them are basically worthless now, if they've got them yet.That's something you have to consider aswell, which I'm not sure you have, ASICs have a HUGE lead time. Order now and you'll be lucky to get it in 6 months. By then, the difficulty would have increased by a shitload. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 (edited) ASICs have a HUGE lead time. Order now and you'll be lucky to get it in 6 months. By then, the difficulty would have increased by a shitload.True, thats why I thought cloud mining would help eleviate that problem. You would have to make sure timelines are structured into your mining contract. As far as difficulty increases, there is a chart that shows the percentage increases over time. The next increase is expected to be about 9 or so %. You could predict the increase in difficulty and factor in worse case scenarios. Thats my next plan. Edited November 26, 2013 by Slybacon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayN Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Word of warning on Butterfly Labs: their support sucks balls. They have a single email address for their entire company regardless of the enquiry. ie. they don't want to know that the hardware they've shipped after you waited 7 months is faulty. So that Monarch card you've had your eye on - is more likely to be only 500GH... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slybacon Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Word of warning on Butterfly Labs: their support sucks balls. They have a single email address for their entire company regardless of the enquiry. ie. they don't want to know that the hardware they've shipped after you waited 7 months is faulty. So that Monarch card you've had your eye on - is more likely to be only 500GH...I heard they are dodgy. To be honest I am using them as an example, out of interest, why would the card only output 500? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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