Scientists warn Earth's sustainability rapidly deteriorating

[apothecary]

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2005/s1335042.htm

TONY EASTLEY: It's being dubbed the most comprehensive look at the health of the Earth. More than 1,300 experts from 95 countries have studied the state of the planet over the past four years, and they conclude that the rate and scale of human consumption of natural resources threatens the earth's ability to sustain future life.

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment reveals that over the past 50 years, two-thirds of all ecosystems which sustain life, including air and water, have been polluted or over-exploited, causing irreversible changes.

And as Tanya Nolan reports, it warns that unless major changes occur in the next 50 years, the consequences could be significant.

TANYA NOLAN: The report says most of the damage to the earth has occurred over the past 50 years through intensive farming and industrial pollution, where humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable time in human history.

For example, more land was farmed after 1945, than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined. This has been due to the demands of a growing population for food, water, timber, fibre and fuel. And the effect has been the largely irreversible loss of diversity, the very basis for sustaining life.

Doctor Walter Reid is the assessments director for the Millennium Ecosystem Report.

Click the link for the rest.

[occidentalis]

And Australia says that thinking pessimistically won't help and stressed the importance of voluntary targets and the role of civil society, rather than government, in reducing consumption...

[waterdragon]

i suspect than when the oil is gone then the age of industry will be in serious decline. after which we may see some sort of environmental correction. we seem to be approaching both points simultaneously.

[Northern Gnome]

I have heard enough being discussed about different energy technologies that I am not fearful about oil running lower, but the transition won't be pleasant if we don't start heading that direction soon.

[Barking Lotus]

hmmm when the oil is gooone!

yeah I was speaking to someone recently who claimed that the worlds oil reserves are reaching their peak and in 5-10 years once this peak has been reached and the reserves start to decline we're basically fucked as far as the industrial side of things go! worldwide recesion followed by depression is almost inevitable in the not too distant future....and we will all be forced to restructure culturally into smaller tribal self providing communities....ofcourse this is just what i was told, i can't remember the specifics, he said he saw it all in a doco that went into quite some detail about all this...someone here may have seen something along those lines.

cheers,

BL

[apothecary]

People have been saying the world oil supply will run out "in the next 5-10 years" since the 70's.

I for one wish it would just hurry up and happen.

The more oil we find, the more polluting we do.

[occidentalis]

Peak oil is now. The most pessimistic researchers say it was in the 90s, the most optimistic say it will be in the 2010s, but most say it's between 04 and 08. So now. Oil is only going to get more expensive. We are not going to run out of oil, but we are going to run out of affordable oil.

Biofuels and renewables will satisfy some demand but there is no doubt that we are going to have to accept big changes in what is known as 'standard of living' - ie we will have to simplify our lifestyles and not buy so much crap that we don't need or even want.

Obviously the most hard hit sector will be transport. Because most of most people's food comes from a LONG way away (today I had to choose between organic beans from Italy or pesticide-ridden ones from Australia), massive changes to our food production and distribution systems will occur. I'm looking forward to suburban streets being ripped up to plant vegies and bikes becoming the main form of transport (I'm one step ahead ).

I see the most likely global economic/political scenario as this:

Oil companies, which have been buying up, researching, and patenting new technologies for decades on the quiet will release a number of energy related devices which will radically change the way we live - and will then become the absolute undisputed rulers of the world.

The US economic powerbase which is entirely reliant on oil (and the maintenance of the US $ as the fiat currency for oil trading) will crumble into the ground like a house of cards stacked by CS on ketamine.

In our region - Australia, having aligned itself so strongly with the US to the detriment of it's relationship with our Asian neighbours, will suddenly find itself surrounded by highly populated, highly militarised industrialising nations looking at it like CS looks at ketamine (ok sorry, enough). Indonesia (with a standing army of 5% of Australias population) will say 'yoink' and take back Timor for it's oil fields, then think seriously about jumping across to North Aus and making itself at home.

Get ready for fun times people!

[smogs]

theres still a shitload of oil left... its just in areas where at the moment its not worth the money to get at it.

Theres too much money in oil both directly and indirectly for anyone in power or with money to want to change it

thats the real problem

[Rev]

Theres plenty of oil in the ground like theres plenty of fish in the sea

As creach says we dont run out of oil we run out of affordable oil - and the fish analogy is that we reach economic exctinction long before biological extinction

As for SE asian invasion - i think it more likely that the opposite would happen

simply because the need for oil is greater in Aust than most of SE asia. When the crunch comes the irony is that the poorest and least developed soceieties of earth, those closest to their pre-modern social and technological base will be better off than the octane addicted develpoed world - if the level of addiction to oil related to the danger threat in its absence then australia will be one of those countries that will do ANYTHING to get its share

its a strange twist of logic in Australia where we see ourselves under threat when in fact WE are the agrressive colonising culture with the big military expenditure, military hardware and collusion with hostile regimes who want to do shit like militarise space. Oh and lets not forget open threats of being the US 'Deputy in SE asia' or promising pre-emptive strikes that violate our neighbours sovereignty

Weve carved up timor for ourselves, invaded Iraq and afghanistan for Oil and colluded with anglo-american imperialism since our very begginnings

but anyway...

[ 05. April 2005, 02:39: Message edited by: Rev ]

[gomaos]

the best thing that could happen to this planet would be if all oil ran out today.

That would be heaven...

[Auxin]

gomaos:

the best thing that could happen to this planet would be if all oil ran out today.

That would be heaven...

Ya do have a interesting take on the prospect of a world war. All the 'alternative energy sources' rely on oil, as the cost of oil goes up alternatives that produce the same amount of energy while consuming less oil will become more prevalent, and over the decades as the oil price continues to escalate the 'alternative' energy systems will be refined to use even less oil... but photolytic water cracking, water engines, solar power, methane from compost, etc.. all takes oil. If all oil production stopped today hundreds of millions (probably more really) would starve and every country with weapons would go to war for resources.

[gomaos]

Perhaps you're right...

or perhaps you're just thinking negatively?

People would have to come out of their stinking oil-driven factories and instead of paying for their food by their oil-supporting/supported work, would have to produce food manually themselves...

i know it's possible...

[smogs]

that doesnt sound like human nature to me... humans always put themselves first and will fight to death over a tank of petrol

oil is really really useful but its wasted by burning it... combustion engines are something like 10-15% efficient! so thats 90-85% of the energy in oil is wasted by either going to sound or heat or not realeased.

While everyone seems to hate plastic at the moment because its the "in" thing to do. Plastic is fookin fantastic! think of all the shit we can do now with palstic. Sure its overused heaps, but if oil was damn expensive then plastic wouldnt be used for things like bags and stuff.... also it would be recycled more.

[gomaos]

hey this thread just gave me an idea to a sci-fi-story or novel.

A meteor or asteroid or idioid comes very close to earth emitting strange unknown radiation that turns all oil and petrol into water.

Humans can't start a war because they have no fuel to power their rockets, planes and tanks etc.

What now?

Hmmm, I could write that.

or I could leave it.

or I could meditate to Shiva...

[apothecary]

Or you could SMOKE some shiva

[occidentalis]

Rev:

its a strange twist of logic in Australia where we see ourselves under threat when in fact WE are the agrressive colonising culture with the big military expenditure, military hardware and collusion with hostile regimes who want to do shit like militarise space.

Yeah, good point

But we already have control of all the nearby hydrocarbon resources - I can't see us invading anyone (except maybe nz ). I see it as more likely that we will shrink back into our own borders and try desperatly to restructure our economy and keep as many people fed as possible...

[woof woof woof]

people,.. time to buy oil stocks,... he eh eh - you know that the price will continue to rise for at least 5 to 10 years without a doubt.

When you have sufficient funds,... buy your property on a deserted island in the pacific,... and make a small self sufficient community.

[ 06. April 2005, 13:40: Message edited by: brian ]

[occidentalis]

brian:

When you have sufficient funds,... buy your property on a deserted island in the pacific,... and make a small self sufficient community.

Just make sure it's a good few metres above sea level .

[_e_]

i was tlkign with friends about the sumatra fault line a couple of days ago and was wondering whether what we are seeing here is a case study that will continue..

Im not too up to date as to how scientifically or contextually correct this idea is but it goes as follows:

Sumatra is an oil hot-spot, oil has been mined here in vast quantities for a decent length of time..When tectonic plates move, the disrubtion and friction created is in relation to certin lubricating agents and 'cushions'.. By removing oil from somewhere, especially an active tectonic join, do we decrease the cushioning/lubricating influence of this natural resource and in doing so increase the risk/severity of earthquakes??

It would be interesting to see peoples reactions if they realised that the severity of these disasters was in relation to the severity of our raping and plundering of natural resources. But this all depends on whether the idea has scientific evidence to support it...

Also- it is not oil that is at the crux of the sustainability problem, but the ability for human (and especially western) society to consume. Sustainability is a question of stopping consumption, rather then consuming somethign else. i.e we dont need another energy source, natural resources can be sustainably utilised over a long period of time if done effectively and efficiently....

Our problem is the lifestyle/consumerist existence that has been created for us...

(and which every single one of us are firmly intrenched in)