El nino, the monsoon and global warming

[Torsten]

In the next chapter of what is either a string of screwy weather years or the result of global warming there is more to come.

The possibility of an el nino in the next season is now double of normal with many indicators settling in for the 'predictability barrier' over the next 3 months.

The monsoon we didn't get this year seems to have saved itself for the northern hemisphere, where the tropics are preparing for a kicker.

And finally some good news. The worlds largest consumer and polluter is looking at a good bashing this year too. My condolences if this is just freaky weather, but if it's due to global warming.

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Another Bad Hurricane Season Predicted (USA)

By ALAN SAYRE, Associated Press Writer

The Atlantic Seaboard and the Gulf Coast could be in for another bad hurricane season, one of the government's top forecasters said Monday.

Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph.

"We can't predict this far in advance how many will strike land," he said. But given the active season, "be prepared for two or three of these to make landfall."

On average, the United States is hit by two major hurricanes every three years.

Last year, there were 15 tropical storms, with nine of them hurricanes — six of them major. Florida got hit by an unprecedented four hurricanes.

Lautenbacher said the 2005 forecast was based on a large number of factors, including air pressure, winds and surface temperature.

Forecasters at Colorado State University have also predicted a significantly above-average Atlantic hurricane season. In April, William Gray and his team said they expect 13 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of them major.

The hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

[ 18. May 2005, 14:51: Message edited by: Torsten ]

[Darklight]

Was it just me or did anyone else see the item on telly last night, ABC news or SBS can't recall, where they discussed that temps in Aus had risen by an average 2C approx? And it was the southern states that were hotting up fastest?

Didn't hear what period they'd worked it out over, but they did say it was affecting retail sales badly cos May was usually a big month for clothes shops to sell winter gear, and it hadn't been cold enough to spark good results for a few years

[Legba]

Global warming, and its hilarious sidekick, global dimming is similar to the old "refer madness" claims from way back'.

the difference is by using these scare tactics, much money is to be made. ponder this...

Global warming is still only an opinion, badly formulated and held by a steadily diminishing group.

CO2 is nearly twice as heavy as air..so how can it rise to form a greenhouse cover? If it did rise it wouldn't be used in fire extinguishers.

Methane is inflammable..so lightning destroys it.

To measure degrees of temperature rise per century we need to have been measuring it for a few centuries.

To quote 1deg per century is not enough information. What is the time frame? Otherwise it means that in 100,000 years the outside air temp will be 1000degC.. and still rising

If meteorologists don't know what's happening next week or a month ahead, then it is impossible for them to have an idea of what our weather will be in 50 years time.

The ozone hole is gone by December so it can't be responsible for summer skin cancer.

As for sealevel rise, how can anyone distiguish between sealevel rise or land sinking? If Tuvalu disappears because the sea is rising, then gone also will be downtown Manhattan.

[occidentalis]

You are correct in saying that there is genuine scientific opposition to the existance of anthropogenic climate change, but few of the points you have raised carry any weight.

 

Bacchant:

CO2 is nearly twice as heavy as air..so how can it rise to form a greenhouse cover?

It doesn't form a 'greenhouse cover'. It mixes with the rest of the atmosphere, just as it has always done. Each molecule absorbs IR radiation reflected up from the Earth and traps it. That is all that is needed for global warming to occur.

quote:

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Methane is inflammable..so lightning destroys it.Oxygen is also inflammable. Sometimes lightning starts fires. So you would be correct in saying that sometimes lightning burns methane present in it's vicinity. However, even though there are hundreds of lightning strikes around the earth every day, we don't notice any change in oxygen levels. Likewise, lightning isn't going to burn up all the methane.

quote:

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To measure degrees of temperature rise per century we need to have been measuring it for a few centuries.

 

It is possible to gain climatic information from past centuries by looking at ice cores, tree trunk cores, and historical records. These may not give data to 1° accuracy, but they do give us enough of a picture to have some idea of what the weather was like in the past.

quote:

 

To quote 1deg per century is not enough information. What is the time frame?

---

It doesn't really matter. 1° change over a century is enough to really fuck things up ecologically. A few degrees change is probably enough to completely destroy the systems that keep us alive.

quote:

If meteorologists don't know what's happening next week or a month ahead, then it is impossible for them to have an idea of what our weather will be in 50 years time.

Meteorology and climatology are distinct sciences. Meterologists aren't trying to work out what's going to happen in 50 years. They are interested in the next cold front or cyclone that will pass through. Climatologists study large scale systems such as the global ocean current heat exchange system to gain an understanding of long term changes in our atmosphere and climate.

quote:

The ozone hole is gone by December so it can't be responsible for summer skin cancer.

Firstly, the ozone hole is not related to global warming, so don't mix them up. Secondly, I don't think the ozone hole is gone by december. It's just starting to break up by december. The ozone layer is always thinner above antarctica, it just gets a bit better in december.

quote:

As for sealevel rise, how can anyone distiguish between sealevel rise or land sinking? If Tuvalu disappears because the sea is rising, then gone also will be downtown Manhattan.

Ok, that's a point. However there is lots of clear evidence for global climate change. In western aus, there are rainfall records where you can clearly see a change around 1975. Before that, while rainfall changed year to year, it oscillated around a certain point. Somewhere between 74 and 76 that point quite distinctly drops to a lower amount.

Last summer was the first time the volcanic crater at the top of mt kilimanjaro has been seen for 1000 years.

[ 19. May 2005, 04:10: Message edited by: creach ]

[woof woof woof]

Torsten:

Another Bad Hurricane Season Predicted (USA)

The hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

You guys pray for my ass comming hurricane season. Last season was scary. Hurricane IVAN who literally destroyed Grenada passed within 180 kilometers North of us. Just a day and a half before that it was still level East of us.

OUr island "Curacao" has not been hit directly in over a hundred years. But it was hit twice in the 1880's.

I am hoping for a happy hurricane season this year - meaning Plenty KICK ASS TUBULAR SURF - WHHHHOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Just thinking of the conditions these storms can whip up gets the adrenalin pumpin! hmmmmm - mechanical working waves...... talk about wet dreams ey!

[Qhorakuna tantani]

 

quote:

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Firstly, the ozone hole is not related to global warming, so don't mix them up.

---

True but wouldn't it allow more light through the Earth's surface thus making more IR light to be absorbed by the lower atmosphere?

On a side note: A lot of people don't know that one of the three major green house gasses is water vapour. Weird isn't it.

Brian: I love the drink curacao. Nice and orangy. Just thought I'd say, dunno why. :s

[ 19. May 2005, 11:40: Message edited by: qhorakuna tantani ]

[Legba]

check this out...a GW debate here

[Torsten]

New Scientist mentioned something about a paper looking at the distribution of fish species in the North Sea. The centre of distribution for most species has shifted either further north into cooler waters, or deeper (for the same reason).

I really don't care if global warming is a reality or not, because even if it isn't now then it will be sometime in the future. And even if that doesn't happen then we still need to find other sources of energy cos the fossil ones will run out.

Bottom line is that we can't afford to be wrong.

[Rev]

hotter and we burn more oil to cool down

colder and we burn more oil to keep warm

seems to be the same net escalation of whatever happens

even organic farming is still heavily oil reliant. in fact i cant think of one economic enterprise that wont be devastated by the loss of cheap oil energy.

this includes all the polluting ones from gadget manufacture to clearing of the amazon for beef and soy production.

no oil, no money, no industry, no pollution.

i seriously doubt whether all the percieved threats of today be it globalisation or corporate tyranny or mobile phone radiation are going to be any worry in 20 years. I think its more likely that the 20's and 30's of this centry are going to see a gloabl depression that will surpass that of the last.

In fishing terms u have biological extinction and economic extinction. the former is rarely reached due to the latter kicking in earlier.

I think the same will happen with human overexploitation of earth

the economic house of cards is gonna fall long before the centuries up then whatevers left will be washed over by a couple centuries of wild weather till the climate restabilises

sooner that happens the better unfortunately

"an enema not love is what the world needs now"

[ 27. May 2005, 10:55: Message edited by: Rev ]

[Legba]

i believe that the human population will vary in accordance with the earths needs. unfortunately, i don't know what the humans relationship to the earth is supposed to be. perhaps the increasing quantity of humans could be due to a decreasing quality of whatever it is that we 'give' to the earth.

[Rev]

but its complicated by consumption

in some places like parst of africa there are many millions of people but these people contribute little to pollution - excpet their own biodegradable wastes

In other places like australia we have few people living in a throw away synthetic lifestyle and using 100's of times the global and fossil resources

so while our popualtion is only 20 million we should recallibrate that to be 150 million simply because we consume and export so much

i dont think high populations are intrinsically bad for the environment. though traffic may harm sensitive ecosystems, the more robust agricultural and urban ecologies need people to survive and flourish. The former n particular which has become more and more poor as fewer people live on the land.

when people live on the land its their home and we generate and deal with resources and wastes locally, and this process makes microclimates and feeds surrounding ecologies. theres very little cyclical about broad acre farming now

[Legba]

here's a thought on scale. if the worlds population is say 10 billion and you put the whole lot of us at a dance party allowing 1 square metre for each individual how much room would u need?

10 000 000 000 squ. metres, i guess. that's...um...about 100 000 metres by 100 000 or 100 square kilometres, right?

ok now the cops turn up (assuming theyre from another planet) and raid the party. EVERYONE trashes the join. I don't think the earth would be too concerned for it life, just ours maybe.

seems to me man is like a small amount of plankton discussing how their actions are dictating the whales course thru the ocean.

[Rev]

yeah but we are spread out

we are a chronic strain on the underlying systems

ecosystems fare much better with acute trashing than

chronic pressure

eh coral reef trashing by cyclone vs nutrient pollution or overfishing

[apothecary]

Bacchant:

seems to me man is like a small amount of plankton discussing how their actions are dictating the whales course thru the ocean.

The problem is, we ARE. We shouldn't be, but we are.

[Torsten]

in fact i cant think of one economic enterprise that wont be devastated by the loss of cheap oil energy.

The biodiesel industry

[spaced]

Rev:

In fishing terms u have biological extinction and economic extinction. the former is rarely reached due to the latter kicking in earlier.

I think the same will happen with human overexploitation of earth

the economic house of cards is gonna fall long before the centuries up then whatevers left will be washed over by a couple centuries of wild weather till the climate restabilises

Once we've learnt how to selectively screw over the environment then that may hold true in most cases. I can think of a few examples where the innocent bystanders get taken down long before the resource being exploited is used up. Take the pacific yew and taxol for instance. Here an understory plant of no known economic importance is wiped out almost to the point of extinction by unselective logging practices where logging co's are simply going for the big $'s. It was only its good fortune that allowed this plant to be discovered as a profitable cancer treatment, which allowed it's story to be told before it became extinct.

[ 30. May 2005, 05:44: Message edited by: spaced ]

[spaced]

Bacchant:

=Methane is inflammable..so lightning destroys it.

Nah - stoichiometric ratio's buddie.

If what you say is true then I couldn't light a match without blowing up the whole planet. Also what about all this noise pollution created by cars and industry. How come this never gets a mention? Biodiesel powered or not, cars are still going to stink, make too much noise run over innocent cyclist and pedestrians, and steal our oxygen - get rid of the bloody things!

[teonanacatl]

the earth will survive long after we are gone, seeds can lay dormant for centuries. after we are gone our cities will be reclaimed by animals and plants.

[Legba]

for those of u who r concerned about global warming.... go and take a jump. for all of us.

[alucinare]

This is obviously a controversial tropic with either side claiming to be supported by scientific research, does anyone know of a credible objective as possible book about this topic?

As Torsten said even if global warming is fictious its better to be safe then sorry though there are also the multitude of other problems associated with overpopulation, desctruction of the ecology and various other issues, which, more than likely have some influence upon one another and the entire global system of life.

[woof woof woof]

our hurricane season begins june 1st - we have had 1 disturbance crossing in central america over from the carib into the pacific then turning into a hurricane. Now we have our first official tropical storm. maybe a catagory one hurricane,...... ARLENE which is battering the US coast in the Gulf of mexico.

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June 1 marks the official start of the Hurricane Season, which will end on November 31. In an average year about ten Tropical Storms are formed from which only six will reach Hurricane category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. From those Hurricanes only three will reach the category three or higher. When the seasons are compared with each other, it is notable that there are active and inactive seasons. During the last decades lot of efforts have been undertaken to understand the variability of the activity of a seasons. Large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions have been utilized to explore the mechanisms, which are associated with active Hurricane Season.

It is now well established that a warm surface temperature of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean enhances the development of hurricanes. On the other hand, warm sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (el Nino event) induces westerlies in the upper level atmosphere in the Atlantic Basin. Consequently this will increase the vertical wind shear, which suppresses the vertical development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.

The Sea Surface Temperature in the Atlantic Basin is expected to be warm to extremely warm (0.7-1.5°C above normal) in the coming months. On the other hand, the Sea Surface Temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to prevail normal to slightly cool, which reflects a near neutral to La Niña condition in the second half of 2005.

Therefore the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season is once again expected to have above normal activity comparable to 1995. Both the NOAA (issued May 16) and the Colorado State University (issued May 31) expect an above average 2005 season with about fifteen named storms of which eight should become hurricanes and four, major hurricanes.

As usual, the Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba will monitor the development of the Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin closely and, if necessary, will issue Watches or Warnings.

http://www.meteo.an/

[Torsten]

Originally posted by brian:

The Sea Surface Temperature in the Atlantic Basin is expected to be warm to extremely warm (0.7-1.5°C above normal) in the coming months. On the other hand, the Sea Surface Temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to prevail normal to slightly cool, which reflects a near neutral to La Niña condition in the second half of 2005.

HUH? Most stations are reporting neutral conditions, but have been near warm for the last few months. More than half the climate models now predict neutral to slight pacific warming (el nino). We are bracing ourselves for another el nino or at least low rainfall year in australia. I am intrigued. Where does your information come from, because I like that one a lot more