Floods

[Slybacon]

Australia's Record Rains Squeeze World Coal

Supplies as Scientists Study Climate Pattern

By JOEL KIRKLAND of ClimateWire

Published: January 12, 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/01/12/12...al-s-38897.html

Australia's torrential rains are driving up global coal prices, as flood damage to the resource-rich northeastern state of Queensland raises fresh questions about the storms' connections to global warming and climate patterns in the Asia-Pacific region.

Prices for export coal used to produce electricity and for making steel in Asia are hitting new highs, as Queensland's largest coal mines remain closed and railroad companies grapple with mudslides.

Australia produces nearly half of the world's exports of steelmaking coal, and most of that coal is heading to China, Japan and India. With the rain threatening to wash out Brisbane, the regional capital, economists are taking stock of growth projections for Asia's biggest energy importers. Meanwhile, financial analysts are digging into the potential impact on Queensland's miners, including multinationals BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Xstrata and Peabody Energy.

Moody's Investors Service projects that the closing of mines in Queensland and damaged rail lines could delay the delivery of 8 million to 15 million metric tons of coal to customers in Asia. Further, the price of metallurgical coal could eclipse record highs hit in 2008. Global prices for seaborne steel-making coal are approaching $300 a metric ton.

"The Queensland coal crisis is bad news for steelmakers worldwide, especially for those without supply contracts in place," said Moody's. "The current metallurgical coal price spikes could nearly double the cost of producing a ton of steel."

If the cost of producing steel can't be passed along to builders, that could take the wind out of steel companies fueling infrastructure expansions in Southeast Asia.

More rain is a bad forecast for steelmakers

Worse still is the potential impact on U.S. and European steelmakers that are starting to recover from the West's economic downturn. "For steelmakers, the most ominous news of all comes from weather forecasts, which predict even more rain for Queensland in the coming weeks," says the report.

Thermal coal burned at power plants is also seeing production disruptions, Moody's said, but that will have a smaller impact on global markets.

All of the major coal producers in Queensland have declared force majeure, which allows them to miss contract deliveries due to a natural disaster.

The coastal port cities, Mackay and Rockhampton, are 100 miles or more from Queensland's coal mines. In early December, as rainwaters had started the monthlong process of flooding mines and washing out rail lines, workers lined up before 1 p.m. at an easy-to-miss storefront depot in Mackay. They waited to load a company bus to the coal mines.

From there, workers would ship out to the sites and return home a day or two later. In short interviews with a ClimateWire reporter, miners said their bosses would keep them busy with maintenance if flooding and wastewater shut their mines.

An unusually strong La Niña event

The operation of coal and freight rails crisscrossing northeastern Australia is spotty. Coal shipments have slowed, and railroad companies are dealing with their own constraints. QR National, which owns major rails connecting the mines to ports, yesterday announced the closure of a line because of a landslide in the Toowoomba Range just west of Brisbane.

With the ground saturated, rivers are breaching their banks in the tiny inland mining communities. Some of the largest mines in the coal-fertile regions of central Queensland aren't producing. The Goonyella rail connecting those mines to the Dalrymple Bay and Hay Point coal ports along the coast has slowed. "Once this flooding recedes, an accurate assessment of repair requirements and recovery timeframes can be made," said QR National.

Meanwhile, the rail company's North Coast freight line is closed from Brisbane to Cairns, stretching from the southern to northern tips of Queensland. Grain is in short supply.

Meteorologists are also watching the events in Australia closely. La Niña is a periodic climate phenomenon that results from an ocean-atmospheric cooling effect.

Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland, said Australia is experiencing an unusually strong La Niña event.

A buildup of moisture in the atmosphere is one result of the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Still, she noted that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report steered clear of any link between weather events associated with the cyclical El Niña (ocean warming) and La Niña (ocean cooling) climate patterns and global warming.

"I'm not willing to pin the Queensland rainfall on global warming. I don't think most scientists would go out and say that," she said. "But at the same time, there's a lot of moisture."

[Slybacon]

Govt defends $10m grant for untested rain-making technology

The World Today - Wednesday, 24 October , 2007 12:36:00

Reporter: Tanya Nolan

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2069159.htm

ELEANOR HALL: The Federal Government is defending its decision to award $10-million to a company to trial rain-making technology.

The Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull has announced the grant to the Australian Rain Corporation, a company part-owned by Rupert Murdoch's nephew, Matt Handbury.

But researchers commissioned by the National Water Commission to investigate the technology have questioned whether the $10-million grant should have been awarded now, saying a more careful evaluation of the science is needed first.

Mr Handbury himself agrees the science is in no way conclusive, but denies his family connections have helped him secure the federal money.

Tanya Nolan has our report.

TANYA NOLAN: It's a technique developed in Russia in the last decade, and it involves sending electrical charges into the atmosphere to make clouds and ultimately rain.

But the problem with it, says Neville Fletcher, a visiting fellow at ANU and emeritus professor of physics at the University of New England, is that it hasn't ever been examined in a thorough scientific way, nor has it been peer reviewed.

NEVILLE FLETCHER: I haven't seen yet enough evidence to say that I'm persuaded that it's going to work. The measurements in Queensland showed that there was more rain in the catchment area than there usually was when the equipment was running. But there was a lot more rain in that part of Queensland at that time as well. So it's a little bit hard to say. It didn't show that the equipment worked, but there was nothing to indicate that it didn't work. So it was a possible.

TANYA NOLAN: Professor Fletcher's conclusions are contained in a report released in August, prepared in conjunction with Ken McCracken from the CSIRO and commissioned by the Government's National Water Commission.

The report warned the commission not to go ahead with any trials of the technology until the science behind it could be more thoroughly tested. But it did say that if it could be done "at no great expense" a trial could be "worthwhile".

The report was produced after a small-scale trial of the technology was conducted in May in conjunction with the University of Queensland, which concluded there was an increase in rainfall at the time and recommended more scientific testing be done.

Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull has now awarded $10-million to the Australian Rain Corporation, which owns the technology, to conduct a full scientific trial of it.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: The report commissioned by the National Water Commission recommended a further scientific trial. The University of Queensland went a lot further than that and recommended a very substantial long-term operational trial as well, which would have cost a great deal more than $10-million.

What I've endeavoured to do is to ensure that we do, we have both a meaningful operational trial and a scientific assessment so that we can investigate this technology in a timely fashion.

TANYA NOLAN: Professor Fletcher says the money would be better spent in stages, rather than funding all the stages simultaneously as the Government is doing.

NEVILLE FLETCHER: My preference would have been first to spend a smaller amount of money doing a careful evaluation of the science, and then, if that looked reasonable, to go onto a field trial. The trouble with jumping in immediately with a field trial in parallel with the science is that the science may turn up things which indicate the field trial ought to be done in a different way.

TANYA NOLAN: Professor Fletcher's view is supported by the water commissioner, Peter Cullen, who is quoted in the News Limited press as saying he is surprised the full $10-million has been awarded before the first step is taken of seriously evaluating the technology.

Chairman of Australian Rain Corporation Matt Handbury says he appreciates that argument, and agrees there are some holes in the science.

MATT HANDBURY: I can understand that logic, but as I said, even when you've worked out the science, how it works, we still wouldn't have demonstrated that it works, and the need for water supplies is so critical in Australia.

TANYA NOLAN: You're name has come up in connection with your uncle, Rupert Murdoch, as possibly a reason why you might be getting all this money at once without the rigorous scientific testing?

MATT HANDBURY: Oh, I haven't heard that Tanya. I think I don't seem to be able to get my name in the paper without my family connections, which I'm proud of and delighted in, but I don't see how… Rupert's aware of this, he's pretty interested in the environment and climate change at the moment, and very interested, but he has no direct involvement, and…

TANYA NOLAN: You don't think your family connection may have precipitated this $10-million windfall for your technology?

MATT HANDBURY: Not in the slightest. I think that… not in the slightest, I can't see the connection.

ELEANOR HALL: The chairman of the Australian Rain Corporation, also the nephew of Rupert Murdoch, Matt Handbury, speaking to Tanya Nolan.

[Slybacon]

Hmmmmm, is there any connection between the two topics in the above articles........

[hutch]

Hmmmmm, is there any connection between the two topics in the above articles........

 

I was actually go to raise that myself earlier this morning but wasn't sure I would be up for the ridicule at the moment...I have put my tin foil hat back in the draw for a bit...

[Slybacon]

What is the big picture? If you step back and take in all the information rather then scrutinising the details is there a pattern here.....

[woof woof woof]

thx Torsten for your wise/well thought responses!

My thoughts go out to all affected.

We have had some major flooding on our island ( somewhere in the Carib ) due to the Tropical storm Tomas this last hurricane season. Flooding like we have never seen it before on the island. Partly caused by human developement. No one I know has ever seen as much water as with Tomas. It was a freak cloud burst event.

Scary thing is that this island was indirecly affected (nearly hit) by 3 tropical cyclones in the late 1800's. Never after that period have hurricanes (cyclones) come that close or passed south of us as two of them did back then. The Worrying bit is that no one here is prepared if one should come as close as they did back then. Most houses here have not been built to withstand a hurricane.

On other carib islands people get hit by hurricanes and the house they then build after their house has been ruined is almost always not storm proofed. Lack of funds or simply ignorance / arrogance.

NATURAL SELECTION! hahaha hurray for choke sex!!!

[incognito]

everyone i saw ontv pulling people out of cars and involved in the heroics seem to be wearing footy shorts and thongs.

when the going gets tough, the bogans get going. kudos to those brave soules.

my best wishes go out to those adversely affected.

Edited January 13, 2011 by incognito

[paradox]

hmmm i just saw on abc iview theres a doco called 'Australia Eye of the Storm'.. About how australian wildlife has evolved to deal with la nina

[mutant]

Interesting insights and comments for us foreigners. Very enjoyable and informative posts, Torsten.

I suppose I should not complain about loosing cacti tips to unexpected snow and frost couple of weeks ago...

SLy, a "cloudbuster" ??

Edited January 13, 2011 by mutant

[bℓσωηG]

just wanted to share the pic...

[ThunderIdeal]

what's with the croc?

not affected here but working massive hours. coronation drive might fall into the river from structural damage, smell will be around for months, oil, lots of mud, pontoons everywhere. i believe the army is picking up all of the trash people are depositing on the curb (nobody has wheelie bins anymore and everyone is cleaning out their houses). cleanup will be slow but it's happening. power will come on progressively over the next few weeks. that's brisbane anyway, the deepest water i saw was about 3M. judging by the radio shit is a lot worse in places like ipswich. rubber neckers in cars really aren't appreciated by the way, in case anyone was thinking about it.

i mainly just wanted to say that community response has been unreal. the volunteers are amazing, so many that they have to be turned away and they are troopers, not interested in praise or reward just lending their back to help in any way.

[bℓσωηG]

what's with the croc?

 

guess he couldnt find the river ? think it said was in toowoomba...

[ThunderIdeal]

crocs don't come anywhere near brisbane.

i guess anything is possible but i don't think crocs just get dragged away by the ocean like that and end up in brisbane. i don't buy it.

edit: cuz they are strong swimmers and accomplished ocean-goers.

Edited January 14, 2011 by ThunderIdeal

[bℓσωηG]

oh soz didnt know this was a brasbine thread

[ThunderIdeal]

it's not but toowoomba is practically brissy. i reckon the photo was from an affected town further north.

[hutch]

Toowoomba is close to Briisy yes but it's elevation would make it a long swim or crawl for a croc to get up there...but...never say never

The clean up has been awesome....great to see queeenslanders come together like that....

One thing keeps gnawing at me....Toowoomba, Withcott, Murphy's Creek, Grantham and maybe Gatton I can understand so much devastation and human suffering as there were massive flash floods but Ipswich and Brisbane....unless you were trying sound deprivation at the time there would have been very little chance that you didn't know it was coming.

I rang my mate in Laidley not long after the flooding hit Toowoomba. Everywhere the media were saying prepare down stream. His house is reasonably new and is on a flood plain.

Fast forward to 7.00am and he is on the phone to me...a tittle teary cause they had to be rushed out and the water was rising and was at the first brick and he had no insurance....I hope you managed to get everything up off the floor I stated....No come his teary reply..He had done nothing..they had even had to leave so fast they left one of their cars in the garage. His mother lives 1 klm up the road on a fucking hill. After a very worrisome morning where he had thought at least 3 foot of water had gone through his house he was over joyed to find it never did get into his house...Lucky....Could that story have been duplicated how many more times in Ipswich and Brisbane and they wearnt as lucky? I saw one old guy blubbering on telly as he was throwing his steel car rims on the rubbish pile....Some people did nothing but rubber neck until it was too late...Maybe I am being a little harsh

[Bush Turkey]

poor gomaos lost everything! (house/garden/ AE)

[bℓσωηG]

it's not but toowoomba is practically brissy. i reckon the photo was from an affected town further north.

lol, yeah for some reason i thought Toowoomba was up north , must have meant to write Townsville , shows you how much i went to the city in my 12 years living on the sunshine coast , hardly ever. My sister in Agnes waters has her backyard flooded , shes lost alot of bromeliads which she collects.

[ThunderIdeal]

rubber neckers (aka tourists) continue to be a shit, but i have some negative things to say about the behaviour of the victims as well. nothing overly harsh, just some observations, based on the fact that the main thing happening in brissy at the moment is picking up all of the shit people have moved onto the sidewalk, which is being shifted onto trucks by loaders and by hand, then sent to hectic makeshift dumps.

1. seems like some are using the opportunity to throw out other random shit that isn't flood damaged.

2. little regard for glass, chemical drums, paint tins, aerosol cans. imagine if a gas bottle got chomped by a 4-in-1 bucket? i reckon that wouldn't be a happy incident. despite what they are going through, people should not just heap hazardous items in with everything else.

3. items don't become worthless just because some river mud touched them. some of the stuff being thrown out is just plain wrong and shows how much of a throw-away society we are. why are gas bottles being chucked because of a flood anyway?

just some observations, rubber neckers are the real problem though. random volunteers acting as unauthorised traffic controllers working for ten hours straight, having to deal with huge, unnecessary traffic, some of which are disrespectful assholes. all of this volunteer work means some people are going to be injured doing work they aren't used to doing, but there is also going to be accidents from all these cars driving around trash-filled areas with swarms of depressed or photo-happy pedestrians, on mud that is fucking very slippery, and if the rubber neckers don't lift their game they are going to start copping shovels to the head through the driver side window. that's my prediction.

[ThunderIdeal]

by the way, can somebody read and reply to all the posts here for me, and do something about the mould in my house, and accumulating muddy laundry? shit gets out of hand when its work/sleep/work/sleep/work/sleep.

[Legba]

Brown, Garrett and Rudd should all resign

[hutch]

Brown, Garrett and Rudd should all resign

 

I agree but...

Careful buddy...the simple fact they have mentioned Green and Fraud on the one line will cost you lots and lots of rep points...

sorry mate but a very touchy subject around here...I have been burnt but I now wear it as a badge of honer...going for neg 100 before this months out....

[hutch]

by the way, can somebody read and reply to all the posts here for me, and do something about the mould in my house, and accumulating muddy laundry? shit gets out of hand when its work/sleep/work/sleep/work/sleep.

 

Wakey wakey ....hope you have today off but think of the money

[hutch]

Brown, Garrett and Rudd should all resign

 

One thing I will ad before you get shouted down... is the dam would not have been finished yet anyway but it will be relevant later.

[Torsten]

Brown, Garrett and Rudd should all resign

 

So what you're saying is that we should trash extensive ecosystems at all costs just because we're too greedy to not build in flood plains? The only effective flood mitigation is to not build in flood plains. I can understand the need for dams to serve as water supplies, but to build them just for our greed and convenience is a bit much to swallow. Each to their own though and I am sure we'll trash this planet quick enough.