waterboy 2.0

How much will climate change really cost? It's getting even more expensive. The true potential costs of climate change are just beginning to come into view. Reuters by Tyler Cowen The potential costs of climate change, already the subject of heated debate, may actually be understated. It's not just the potential disruptions to weather systems, agriculture and coastal cities; it's that we may respond to those problems in stupid and destructive ways. As the philosopher and cartoon character Pogo said: "We have met the enemy and he is us." Consider how poorly we have responded to many non-climate-related problems. In the case of Brexit, for example, the Leave movement was arguably responding to some real problems. The European Union bureaucracy is too stringent, and perhaps the UK did not have an ideal arrangement with immigration. But Brexit is careening towards disaster, with no good plan on tap, the two major parties in splinters, the British pound declining, the Irish "Good Friday" agreement at risk, and the UK seriously talking about food stockpiles and other emergency measures. It would have been better if the British had responded to their country's problems in a less extreme way, or simply learned to live with the problems they had. Instead, they voted for a rash and poorly thought-out remedy. Similarly, you might think that supporters of President Donald Trump have legitimate concerns about illegal immigration and US unwillingness to stand up to China. Still, that did not require a presidential "remedy" that has brought chaos and corruption to the White House and US foreign policy alike. In short, the world increasingly appears to be reaching for extreme and imprudent remedies to admittedly complex problems. These overreactions do not seem to be mere accidents, but arise from some pretty fundamental features of polarised politics - namely, that discourse has become less rational and technocratic. When it comes to climate change, all this plays out in interesting ways. In the US, imagine that many Florida residents have to leave their residences permanently, due to fiercer storms or rising sea level. The rational approach might involve well-functioning insurance markets, some public-sector transfers and compensation, and better infrastructure planning. The idea would be to limit the number of such moves or at least to lower their cost. That could prove very costly but essentially manageable. But that is probably not what we will get. Instead, the debate may well radicalise Florida politics, which has consequences for national politics as Florida is a swing state. On the federal level, an infrastructure bill would invariably direct too much money to wasteful new projects in less populated states. Everywhere, the harsh, non-sympathetic tone of the debate will further corrode American politics. Forced migration Looking outside of the US: Imagine that climate change forced or induced the migration of many people from Bangladesh. An ideal international reaction would involve foreign aid plus the cooperative parceling out of refugees to different countries. Circa 2018, following the crises in Syria and Libya, does anyone really expect such a rational outcome? A more likely, though admittedly speculative scenario, is clashes on the border with India, the further radicalisation of Indian politics ("build a wall"), refugee camps full of hundreds of thousands of people, and more extremist terrorism in Bangladesh. I am struck by the costs of climate change suggested in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, hardly a source of denialism. Its cost estimate - "1 to 5 per cent of GDP for 4C of warming" - is relatively reassuring. After all, global GDP is right now growing at more than 4 per cent a year. If climate change cost "only" 4 per cent of GDP on a one-time basis, then the world economy could make up those costs with less than a year's worth of economic growth. In essence, the world economy would arrive at a given level of wealth about a year later than otherwise would have been the case. That sounds expensive but not tragic. Unfortunately, that is not the right way to conceptualise the problem. Think of the 4 per cent hit to GDP, if indeed that is the right number, as a highly unevenly distributed opening shot. That's round one, and from that point on we are going to react with our human foibles and emotions, and with our highly imperfect and sometimes corrupt political institutions. (Libertarians, who are typically most sceptical of political solutions, should be the most worried.) Considering how the Syrian crisis has fragmented the EU as well as internal German politics, is it so crazy to think that climate change might erode international cooperation all the more? The true potential costs of climate change are just beginning to come into view. https://www.afr.com/business/energy/how-much-will-climate-change-really-cost-its-getting-even-more-expensive-20180926-h15x94

Beer traps.... Drown them. Not the be all end all... Just another tool. Edit - a vegemite "soup" works also, they chase after the yeast Also look around for a source spot they are coming from.... Boards, bricks, compost bins ect... If there's something close disturb it often (flip over boards ect) and target it.

There's a few cemeteries down here that have become the last bastions for some grassland Flora. It's odd hunting down threatened plants in the dead centres as conservation "islands". I wanted to be recycled through the Tas Devils, but the cancer has hammered them, things are scarce now and can't guarantee they don't get scrubbed from the wild.... .... Shit, that may explain a bit

I missed this, but on foundations, trees and soil.... It's not just physical root force on foundations, it's the change In moisture status, which can have parts of the foundation move differently and then cracking the foundation, or exert the movement into the house frame(cracking internal walls, jamming doors ect). If it's a "reactive" clay this action is more prominent, no probs in sand (doesn't shrink/crack or swell with changing water status) . Plants can draw out the water in their zone of roots and change the soil state if a reactive soil. Also some pour water into a drying soil and cause the differential movement. In Australia that's H1, H2 and E Foundation classifications(high reactive clay content, close to the surface).

Here’s how much worse climate change is making Florence Scientists are working in real time to figure out much warmer weather is boosting the storm. [Photo: Goddard Space Flight Center/NASA/Flickr] BY ADELE PETERS2 MINUTE READ As Hurricane Florence dumps rain on the Carolinas–perhaps as much as 30 or 40 inches in some areas, causing dangerous flooding–it’s raining more because of climate change. A new study estimates that the forecasted rainfall along the coast is 50% more intense than it would have been without greenhouse gas emissions from humans. The study is preliminary, and is also the first of its kind. For the last few years, researchers have carefully studied some significant disasters, from record heat and drought to record flooding, to determine how much climate change made them worse. But those studies have happened after each event. This is the first attempt to do it before a storm hits. “Climate change is often viewed as a distant threat, far off in the future,” says Kevin Reed, a professor of marine and atmospheric sciences at Stony Brook University and one of the authors of the study. “We did this during the event, as it was unfolding, to actually help communicate the reality that climate change is here and it’s a real risk to the public now.” [Photo: Michael Candelori/Shutterstock] On Sunday night, as the storm approached, Reed and a team of colleagues began the analysis. The researchers ran a forecast based on atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures from NOAA. Then they ran a modified forecast to remove the changes in temperature and moisture linked to global warming. They found that the forecasted rainfall amounts over the Carolinas were 50% greater because of climate change, and the size of the storm would be around 50 miles larger. After the storm, Reed and the other researchers plan to re-run the simulations and submit a study for peer review. There are some challenges to doing an analysis early, says Sean Sublette, a meteorologist at Climate Central, an organization of experts that study climate change, including the impacts of climate change on individual weather events. “I think the big difference between trying to do this now, or doing this after the effect, is that you’re going to have a lot better data after the event is over and you have all the real-world data. We know this amount of rain fell here, this amount of rain fell here, whereas now it’s still largely being estimated.” In similar studies after Hurricane Harvey, the increase in rainfall attributed to climate change was estimated to be between 18% and about 38%. But the general link is clear–climate change is making rain more intense. “It’s going to be a significant percentage higher,” says Sublette. “That’s just basic physics, which is well understood. You’ve got a warmer atmosphere, you’ve got warmer water. So there’s going to be more evaporation, which goes into more precipitation.” Some studies also suggest that climate change is making hurricanes move more slowly, so as more rain falls, it’s also falling longer in certain areas–and making flooding much worse. https://www.fastcompany.com/90237340/heres-how-much-worse-climate-change-is-making-florence

Plant what you like to eat, and especially if it's a more expensive commodity where you are. Spuds and onions are cheap here and OK quality, unless I want a specific variety. Snow Peas are expensive and pretty poor quality really so a priority grow,as they are high yielding.

And weeds, pests and pathogens..... Be better off posting than carrying on...... Business prepared seed and packaging gets less scrutiny, that is with botanical naming and contact details of the supplier. http://www.agriculture.gov.au/import/goods/plant-products/seeds-for-sowing As of 9 April 2018, the department will no longer facilitate the clearance of conditionally non-prohibited goods that arrive without the required import permit. Therefore seeds that require a permit, but arrive without one, including where an application is currently under consideration, will be directed for export from Australian territory or required to be destroyed in an approved manner. It's also more than one agency you may need to deal with..... Customs are primarily concerned with money..

Maybe? Species and host dependant. Watch for damage. Tis the time of emergence from the soil temperature wise. Any damage with typically show as white to silvery speckles/spots, they'll distort and stunt growth if feeding in high numbers. They inject an enzyme into the plant when feeding that does damage and they drink the "soup". They prefer drier conditions. Higher humidity if you can get away with it help a lot.

thrips?

L. Styraciflua produces a nice carpentry timber. Popular tree down here.

Ive used a few over the years for deer stalking and security. I'm pretty much only using little acorn trail cam now... There are Crap knock off versions to be avoided. Similar to this... https://www.ebay.com.au/p/12mp-Hunting-Scouting-Trail-Camera-LTL-Acorn-5210a-940nm-Wildlife-IR-Night-16gb/2163095772?iid=181905418360&_trkparms=gclientid%3D^sbf%3D%23000000^&_trksid=p2489528.m4324.l9588 I like getting an image on my phone of who's turned up at my gate when I'm not there.....and their license plate... Can also get solid lock boxes for places where theft may be an issue... Bit of thought in placement helps though. Thought I had one not deployed

Up for grabs... Mint condition, softcover. A second copy I've barely opened. $25 + whatever the regular satchel costs. Edit - off to a good home

http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/warming-stripes/ Global annual average 1.3 degree C.... 1850-2017

Canola oil will work as a bar oil Bit thinner, so use more. Cheaper and more environmentally friendly.

Male... Male cones... Will be yellow

Some ecologies would be more robust. But nutrient is a big factor in the mostly ancient aussie deficient soils, and how that Impacts the native assemblage if enriching, and give advantages to weed Incursions... And weed growing... Lol Rodent control in clandestine grows has caused widespread issues in a few countries... So there is potential for fauna impacts. Could think of others... Suburbia is the mainstay of where the "lets use this wasted space" folk are greening, and it's an interesting thing. Generally they just seed and go, rather than improve for increased production and then crop protection methods.

Different one I think glaukus... The trendy one, rather than the old school one.... Maybe I'm wrong I went with this one (not initially lol) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guerrilla_gardening

Overgrow horticultural defiance. Avoid weeds, species with weedy potential. Some have different aims, food or flowers, natives ect. Had a different connotation when I was a pup

Nothing special for eucs, in around months the ambient Temps will be better. Use gritty mineral soil, rather than barky potting mix by preference. Acacias need stratification as rule of thumb, with hot water the best bet. Make a cuppa, them pour some over seeds let cool, then let them soak up a bit of water. Theres only a couple of species I've used to used smoke for, Brunonia was one I can think of, and grass trees. Natives do better with natural cycles rather than heat mats IMO as you can let them do as the seasons dictate and what the are adapted to perform under. Timing can make your life pretty easy with natural Temps for germination. Understory Network gives best times and conditions for a lot of things in there database. They defo have the tricks for a lot of native species. Your local NRM (NRM South) would also have some regional info, Google them up. Some wildflowers need scarification, do a sandpaper rub or clip with nail clippers can do the deed. Tubestock is better suited to raising many natives.

Earth at risk of 'hothouse climate' where efforts to reduce emissions will have no impact, study finds By Elise Pianegonda Posted2 days ago, updated2 days ago IMAGEA "hothouse" climate could trigger earth processes like a major reduction of Antarctic sea ice.(Australian Antarctic Division: Richard Youd) If humans cause the earth's global average temperature to increase by a further 1 degree Celsius, the world could face a "hothouse" climate and trigger further warming — even when all human emissions cease, an international study has found. Key points: Study found the climate is heading for a tipping point that could make the planet uninhabitable It could cause temperatures up to 5C higher than pre-industrial averages Current global efforts to curb emissions are "unlikely" to prevent the dangerous situation The study titled Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, which involved researchers from around the world, was published in the international journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). It found the Earth was heading for a tipping point, known as a "hothouse" climate, which could lead to average temperatures up to 5C higher than pre-industrial temperatures and rises in sea level of between 10 and 60 metres. Lead researcher Professor Will Steffen from the Australian National University (ANU) said at that point much of the earth would be uninhabitable. He explained that if human emissions raised global temperatures to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures it could trigger earth system processes — or feedbacks — that could then cause further warming. "The real concern is these tipping elements can act like a row of dominoes," Professor Steffen said. "Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another. "It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over." Current efforts 'unlikely' to help avoid tipping point Professor Steffen said global average temperatures were currently just over 1C above pre-industrial temperatures and rising at 0.17C each decade. And he said while humans were not the sole cause of temperature changes on Earth, the current efforts by nations to reduce emissions and stop average temperatures rising by a further 1C were "unlikely to help avoid this very risky situation". "Even if the Paris Accord [Agreement] target of a 1.5C to 2C rise in temperature is met, we cannot exclude the risk that a cascade of feedbacks could push the Earth system irreversibly onto a 'hothouse Earth' pathway," the study said. "As yet [these initiatives] are not enough to meet the Paris target." Professor Steffen said countries needed to work together to "greatly accelerate the transition towards an emission-free world economy". "If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies," the study said. "Collective human action is required to steer the Earth system away from a potential threshold and stabilise it in a habitable interglacial-like state." The authors of the study examined 10 feedback processes, some of which could cause "the uncontrollable release" of carbon back into the atmosphere, after it had been stored in the earth. Some of the processes also included permafrost thaw, Amazon rainforest dieback, a reduction of northern hemisphere snow cover, a loss of Arctic summer sea ice, and a reduction of Antarctic sea ice and polar ice sheets. The study did not lay down a timeframe for when such events would begin to occur, but theorised — if the threshold was crossed — it could be within a century or two. "The impacts of a hothouse earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive," the study said. https://www.google.com.au/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/10080274

Arctic Circle hits 32C as Europe heatwave nears record temperatures By Nick Pearson 12:10pm Aug 1, 2018 This is a modal window. This video is eir unavailable or not supported in this browser Error Code: MEDIA_ERR_SRC_NOT_SUPPORTED Session ID: 2018-08-06:14043270bc68f96d7dcffe30 Player Element ID:player_6qu8po OK Summer heat brings disaster to Europe 1 / 2 Temperatures in the Arctic Circle have reached upwards of 32C, as Europe swelters through an extraordinary heatwave. The weather station in Banak, in the far north of Norway, recorded temperatures of 32.4C. That particular area in Norway has an average maximum temperature in summer of 16.9C. Reindeer in the country were photographed drinking water among swimmers as the temperature reached scorching levels. Meanwhile, Spain and Portugal are bracing for the mercury to break the all-time European heat record of 48C later this week. RELATED ARTICLES Three dead as Europe heatwave escalates Europe heatwave in pictures: Record-breaking temps blast the continent Europe heatwave: Hottest day in Europe ever could come in the next week The heatwave gripping large stretches of Europe has already been blamed for deadly forest fires and crop failures. Now freshwater fish could be its next victims. Some regions in Germany sweltered as the mercury hit 39C and the German Meteorological Office said the country's record of 40.3C could be topped as the week continues. Rivers like the Rhine and the Elbe have soaked up so much heat that fish are beginning to suffocate. "I'm expecting a tragedy as soon as next week," Philipp Sicher from the Swiss Fishery Association told German news agency dpa. In Hamburg, authorities collected almost five metric tons of dead fish from ponds over the weekend, dpa reported. Firefighters have started pumping fresh water into some ponds and lakes in a bid to raise oxygen levels. Scientists say the record heat seen in Europe but also North America and parts of Asia this year points to the influence of man-made climate change and could become more common in future. Several of Germany's nuclear power stations are reducing energy output because rivers used to cool the power plants are too warm. The low water levels have also made shipping more difficult, with a complete ban imposed on boats on the Oder river in eastern Germany. Meanwhile, the country's Farmer's Association is asking the government for 1 billion euros (A$1.57 billion) in financial aid to help cover losses from this year's poor harvest. Association president Joachim Rukwied said German farmers expect the grain harvest to be 20 percent smaller than last year, with rapeseed crops down 30 percent, as it has barely rained during the past 12 weeks, dpa reported. A group representing potato farmers said they're expecting harvests to be 25 percent smaller than last year and warned that the losses may lead not only to more expensive but also shorter French fries — because the spuds are so small this year. The oceans, too, have been affected. No swimming People enjoy the warm temperatures and bright sunshine as they crowd a beach in the Baltic Sea resort of Miedzyzdroje, northwestern Poland. (AAP) Authorities in Poland last week banned swimming at over 50 beaches along its Baltic Sea coast, after hot weather led to the growth of toxic bacteria in the unusually warm sea. Water temperatures in the Baltic Sea exceeded 23C in some places. Emergency water rescuers told vacationers on hot, sandy beaches — from Swinoujscie in the west to Gdynia in the east — not to enter the sea, where thick, green-brown cyanobacteria colonies have grown and pose a health threat. Police in western Germany, meanwhile, rushed to where callers overnight reported hearing frantic screaming from a woman — but it turned out that a hospital had opened its windows because of the heat and several women there were in labor. Police dogs in the Swiss city of Zurich have been getting special shoes to prevent them from burning their paws on the scorching streets. Swiss authorities have also cancelled traditional fireworks displays in some areas during Wednesday's national holiday celebrations, citing the high risk of forest fires. Across Europe, forest fires have already caused major damage. On July 23, at least 91 people died in a wildfire in Greece — the deadliest in Europe for decades. In Spain, 27 of the country's 50 provinces are at "extreme risk" from heat beginning on Thursday, the national weather agency said. In neighbouring Portugal, the General Directorate for Health warned about dust blowing in from North Africa and authorities said almost 11,000 firefighters and 56 aircraft are on standby to tackle forest fires. Some are benefiting from the simmering heat. Beer brewers in Germany have seen sales rise 0.6 percent, or 300,000 hectolitres in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year. "Especially the alcohol-free types are currently very much sought after," said Marc-Oliver Huhnholz, from the German Brewer-Association. In Denmark, where the Meteorological Institute reported that the month of July has been the sunniest since they started recording data in 1920, sales of alcoholic beverages dropped in favour of non-alcoholic beers, sodas and white wine, the country's TV2 reported. https://www.9news.com.au/world/2018/08/01/12/10/arctic-circle-hits-32c-as-europe-heatwave-nears-record-temperatures