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Sallubrious

Melbourne cup beat the bookies

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Here's a little toy I knocked up this morning as proof of concept. It allows you to back multiple horses in one race for a win and still turn a profit if any of them win (depending on the starting odds).

 

The first few tabs have odds entered as examples. The latter tabs need their relevant fields filled.  If you don't fill in the odds required for all the horses the sheet/tab will show an error -#DIV0! . You can change your total bet by changing the amount entered into the total bet field.

 

The individual bet is the amount to bet on each horse and you have to round that figure off and bet that individual amount on every horse listed.

 

I'll make a little java app to do the same thing when I get a chance. It will be a lot more user friendly that way.

 

It's written on libre office but it may work on excell as well.

 

Gamble responsibly, or get really drunk and bet the house, your choice.

 

There are a few rare occasions (if the bookie gets his dutch book calculations wrong) where it's possible to back every horse in the race and turn a profit. Normally it's best to find a race with no short priced favourite and back three to five runners.

 

It's not called Dutch book master because it enables mastery of Dutch book theory, the master file is meant be saved and any changes are done to a copy to keep the master in tact.

 

 

Dutch Book Calc master.ods

Dutch Book Calc master excell.xlsx

Dutch Book Calc master.ods

Dutch Book Calc master excell.xlsx

Dutch Book Calc master.ods

Dutch Book Calc master excell.xlsx

Edited by Sallubrious
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Yeah I made a few bucks yesterday. I could have made a lot more if I had more play money to start with but it worked.

 

I tweaked the spreadsheet a bit today to get rid of the errors and simplify it a bit. Now it just has one working page and the calculations are done behind the scenes. The original one would be better if you wanted to run some statistics analysis to find a sweet spot for the ideal number of horses to bet on etc, but the new one is a lot less cumbersome. In all reality it could be cut down to just show fields for 5 horses, it would fit better on a phone that way. Feel free to chop it down if you need to.

 

I don't use excell, so I can't say if the excell version works. If someone could test it and let me know I'd appreciate it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dutch Book 2.0.ods

Dutch Book 2.0.xlsx

Dutch Book 2.0.ods

Dutch Book 2.0.xlsx

Dutch Book 2.0.ods

Dutch Book 2.0.xlsx

Edited by Sallubrious

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Excel file opens on my pc. :)

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the *.ods file opens in excel too :-)

 

so if any of the selected horses come win the profit will be roughly the same in each case?

Edited by doublebenno

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55 minutes ago, doublebenno said:

so if any of the selected horses come win the profit will be roughly the same in each case?

 

Yeah, any winner from the ones you select should pay roughly the same. You have to allow some margin for error as you can only bet in 50 cent units or $1 units in some places. You could add another column for a bet rounded to the units ($1 or 50c) used by the agency you bet through. Then the total bet would be skewed a bit either way. A last minute betting plunge by a syndicate could be problematic too.

 

It's not a magic system like the B.S. some people sell on the web, it's just a way to maximise your chances of success in a corrupt fixed sport. You can still lose if you haven't selected the right horses.

 

Most pro punters rely on inside information & betting formulas like this. Nothing beats inside information.

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