Tax toke

[Fenris]

From http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tax-toke-the-budget-office-models-gst-on-marijuana-20160129-gmhjli.html

Just what are they smoking down in the Parliamentary Budget Office?

The normally conservative federal institution has done some highly unusual economic modelling based on the question: how much money could the Turnbull government raise if it legalised and then applied the GST to marijuana?

The answer is about $300 million a year.

And that doesn't even include the increased tax toke – sorry, take – from the inevitable boom in sales of pizza and Doritos.

The PBO, which was set up to provide independent and non-partisan budget analysis to politicians, did the costings at the request of libertarian crossbench senator David Leyonhjelm, who wants marijuana fully legalised.

If such a policy were introduced in July 2017 it would raise $600 million in GST revenue in the first two years, the PBO found.

That money would flow on to the states but the policy would also help the federal government through reduced law enforcement costs.

The government would save about $100 million a year in reduced Australian Federal Police and Australian Border Force costs, the PBO says.

The costing is based on some key assumptions, chiefly that all states and territories would align with the Commonwealth in fully legalising marijuana, hemp growing and the production of hemp for human consumption.

It's also based on there being no restrictions on marijuana production, such as quotas or restrictive licensing.

It also assumes there would be no impact on excise collections from the sale of alcohol or tobacco.

"A number of studies have analysed whether marijuana is a complement to or substitute for alcohol and tobacco. However, the literature has not reached a consensus, with the findings of different studies in conflict," the PBO says.

The impact of the proposal was calculated by applying a 10 per cent GST rate to current estimates of household consumption expenditure on marijuana.

However the PBO predicts the proposal would result in an increase in marijuana supply and demand, from 333 tonnes in 2016-17 to 395 tonnes in 2018-19.

The PBO stressed these costings should be considered "low reliability".

"There is uncertainty regarding the price and quantity of marijuana currently consumed and the price and quantity of marijuana that would be consumed in a newly legalised market," the PBO writes.

"It is also difficult to separately identify marijuana law enforcement activities as these are often integrated within broader law enforcement activities."

Senator Leyonhjelm said he does not recommend the use of marijuana except for medical purposes but recreational use should be for adults to decide for themselves.

"Prohibition has achieved absolutely nothing except tie up police resources and provide revenue for criminal gangs," he said.

And to polish that off check out here http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/02/time-to-legalise-pot-to-pack-budget-cone/

[-RC-]

Ta-da!

I fucking knew it!

Now watch em fall all over themselves. "Our state is the first to pilot a recreational-retail model, because $$$$$$$$$$$$"

First in best dressed motherfuckers.

[Sallubrious]

 

It's also based on there being no restrictions on marijuana production, such as quotas or restrictive licensing.

It would good if the bureaucrats don't get a different idea and implement a model like the tobacco system operates under where billion dollar multi national corporations control the scene.

If it was set up like the alcohol system with boutique breweries and distilleries allowed to compete, it would be the next best thing to outright legalisation.

That would also have a knock on effect for the economy from tourist dollars that could boost the revenue projections several times over. If I lived OS and I was thinking of a destination for a holiday, the cheap dollar and the availability of legal herb would be factors in my decisions. It could be the difference between choosing to go Bali, NZ, Hawaii etc or Australia.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Sallubrious

[wert]

One brand name should be dark thunder.

Think of tourists merchandise.

"Came to the land down under smoked it up in a cloud of dark thunder" t shirts.

[BedOSpines]

I would be definintly lured in by that

[Yeti101]

Plenty of knock-on economic benefits, that's for sure. Australian version of the PAX 2 vaporizer anyone?

[Strontium Dawg]

Looks like senator Leyonhjelm has been reading our submissions then!

[seekingmeaning]

I think they will do something similar to Colorado, a sales tax, toke/weed tax, possibly even recreation tax to make it cheaper for legit medical patients. The government could use the extra tax from the recreational smokers to subsidize and offset the cost for the medical patients.

10% sales tax only = $300M a year, add a 10% weed tax and it goes up to $600M a year, add a recreational tax of say 8-10% and you're now generating somewhere around 800-900Mil a year with growth of nearly 25% in the following year.
It's more closer to a 1 - 1.5 Billion dollar a year industry. On top of that, because of our space, you we could set up international trade agreements to allow our people to grow for places like colarado, uruguay, etc, bringing in even more money in exports.

They have to go full recreational otherwise they'll never be able to stamp out the black market, and in turn will still be wasting police time and our money chasing the 'illegal' pot growers.
Who wants to bet the bet the turncoat government brings this to policy out if they start tanking in the elections. Big money in the weed game is knocking on our greedy corrupt politicians doors.

[Slocombe]

Call me cynical, but I don't think legalisation is going to happen anytime soon.

[Strontium Dawg]

I agree, pollies, and the general public are pretty uptight about it still.

[-RC-]

Call me cynical, but I don't think legalisation is going to happen anytime soon.

Bro, you're cynical

It'll be quicker than you think, an I guarantee there are shitloads of backdoor shennanigans going on right now as polies and private interests/corporations try to secure their position before the 'public' green light is given.

I've had people approach me representing doctors and medical groups looking to kick off their shit last year. Unfortunately if I'm asked if I know any growers who would be interested in advising said groups the answer is "NO!"

Play 'fair' like the rest of us sorry bastards are forced to.

[stonewolf]

Don't underestimate the liberal contempt for fun. There is a certain kind of person created by a buttoned up, wealthy, religious and strict background many from the far right come from. Anyone who isn't like them is a threat and need to be dealt with punitively. Those substantial voices might drag this issue out for some time to come.

[Yeti101]

Bro, you're cynical

It'll be quicker than you think, an I guarantee there are shitloads of backdoor shennanigans going on right now as polies and private interests/corporations try to secure their position before the 'public' green light is given.

I've had people approach me representing doctors and medical groups looking to kick off their shit last year. Unfortunately if I'm asked if I know any growers who would be interested in advising said groups the answer is "NO!"

So you're saying I should be looking to buy some shares? I don't know how much Phytotech and the other medical mj companies are set up to profit from decriminalisation/legalisation.

[-RC-]

In 2015 I was approached by 2 separate groups:

The first, via a risk management consultant, were a group of doctors and investors looking at developing their business plan/acquire resources for the pending kickoff. Essentially they wanted to talk with anyone who has had anything to do with cannabis legislation, reform/activism re current perinent global trends/developments in the area, and potential resource (HR and plant) acquisition.

The second was via another middleman, this time an internet marketing/optimisation mob, wanting to place articles and advertising banners on my site related to medical cannabis and businesses, both existent and in development.

Both were Australian based aiming at the coming market.

My feeling is that there will be a whole lot of swift implementation of a number of acts and laws that establish a number of private interests and government groups front and centre to reap the cream. Smoke and mirrors, and mention of "compassion" and "logical/right" things to do will start coming from our our most non-compassionate and illogical people. There will be questions raised by how it comes in, but I guess the hope is that the money will be on a scale such as to allow them to point at it and say "Forget about how we got here! Look how good it is!"

Just because it will be legalised doesn't mean it will all be legit from the get go. I forecast distinct dodgyness, with a smattering of 360 degree about-faces, retractions and ridiculous attempts to establish an even more ridiculous bureaucracy around it all...

[Strontium Dawg]

People have been getting ready for the impending legalisation for a very long time. That doesn't mean it's imminent.

My buddy's uncle was trying to copyright names and words like "sinsemilla" back in the 80s.

[-RC-]

^ Yeah, but back in the 80's medical cannabis hadn't been given the green light by the federal government

It's a matter of time, and by time I mean less than 2 years. The PBO being involved is a big deal, as it now gives that economic impetus to the whole thing, which we all know these days is the most important thing to government.

 

[Strontium Dawg]

What it will require is for Rupert Murdoch to endorse it and get all his fine media outlets to start singing the praises. Once that happens it's a done deal. Until that happens I see a rocky road for legalisation. We all know who really calls the shots in oz politics.

[etherealdrifter]

In 2015 I was approached by 2 separate groups:

The first, via a risk management consultant, were a group of doctors and investors looking at developing their business plan/acquire resources for the pending kickoff. Essentially they wanted to talk with anyone who has had anything to do with cannabis legislation, reform/activism re current perinent global trends/developments in the area, and potential resource (HR and plant) acquisition.

The second was via another middleman, this time an internet marketing/optimisation mob, wanting to place articles and advertising banners on my site related to medical cannabis and businesses, both existent and in development.

Both were Australian based aiming at the coming market.

My feeling is that there will be a whole lot of swift implementation of a number of acts and laws that establish a number of private interests and government groups front and centre to reap the cream. Smoke and mirrors, and mention of "compassion" and "logical/right" things to do will start coming from our our most non-compassionate and illogical people. There will be questions raised by how it comes in, but I guess the hope is that the money will be on a scale such as to allow them to point at it and say "Forget about how we got here! Look how good it is!"

Just because it will be legalised doesn't mean it will all be legit from the get go. I forecast distinct dodgyness, with a smattering of 360 degree about-faces, retractions and ridiculous attempts to establish an even more ridiculous bureaucracy around it all...

thanks mate for claryifingy your direct previuos post above.

it's all wey wery fwastwating. there's so many people in oz who just plain regularly smoke pot at the end of day. others a )exhibit are deleterious slaves to the suit.

They're hoofing meth or wacking horse, not even drinking the proverbial slab a nite

....no no...they are bunging up a bungar and chillin. Then the mandatory dishes and dinner.

Wow, the super criminal element is a weed smoker.

Public enemy no1.

If choofers weren't so stoned when they get busted (ie NOT amped like on the good ol speed((not meth- just nh3 made not methylamine made nuttso stuff)) ffs

shit would be a whole lot easier to work out.

Problem is pollies -apart from coke- don't really get shit like a shroom . Some greens, some others, etc-yes yes, there is opollies who like o get baked- but for the most part , not too many will admit that at the peak of a trip they banged something else like-insert substance here- made them talk about nature for fours like never before.

I've heard down at the pub that dave knows this ol chook who knows this dakkacultiVator,and that overheard them in the dunnies - that they all -for the majority -would never stick their neck out for some flimsy paper put infront of them by govt lawyers.

Until new generations enter politics and it's switched from a predominaantly 2 party system,the game will never change .............and all the goal post shifting won't(probably magic hocus pocus voodoo chant) advance the real true argument.

ie, alot of people, all sexes enjoy some mj here and there.

edit it's a 3 not a 2

Edited February 8, 2016 by etherealdrifter

[seekingmeaning]

Introducing brand new legislation for growing. It's coming guys, it's coming! http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-10/medical-cannabis-cultivation-legislation-to-be-introduced/7154006