The Great Global Warming/Cooling Thread Part 2

[waterboy 2.0]

^Hooray

EDIT: and ROFL

Edited January 19, 2013 by waterboy

[Dolos]

Could explain why the warming stopped.

Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming

M. Beenstock¹, Y. Reingewertz¹, and N. Paldor^2
1Department of Economics, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem, Israel
²Fredy and Nadine Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel

Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/3/561/2012/esdd-3-561-2012.html

[Dolos]

^Hooray

EDIT: and ROFL

You seem you have a 'weakness of attitude' what does that say about your character?

Edited January 20, 2013 by Dolos

[waterboy 2.0]

Bring it on sunshine Feel free to PM me if you care to bring it and I will happily give you a taste of my character - rather than attempt a thread derail....

Hope you read that paper, and its final out clause....

"This means, however, that as with all hypotheses, our rejection of AGW is not absolute;
it might be a false positive, and we cannot rule out the possibility that recent global warming has an anthropogenic
footprint. However, this possibility is very small, and is notstatistically significant at conventional levels."

sure showed me......

[Dolos]

Bring it on sunshine Feel free to PM me if you care to bring it and I will happily give you a taste of my character - rather than attempt a thread derail....

Hope you read that paper, and its final out clause....

"This means, however, that as with all hypotheses, our rejection of AGW is not absolute;

it might be a false positive, and we cannot rule out the possibility that recent global warming has an anthropogenic

footprint. However, this possibility is very small, and is notstatistically significant at conventional levels."

sure showed me......

Threats waterboy? Thats the norm around here if you don't wish to be part of the cult. I don't appreciated being threatened. Thanks for your hollow contribution to this important subject....you've sure shown me.

And yes I did pay particular attention to the last clause. We have spent and wasted trillions of dollars in an attempt to hault something that may have a temporay affect on global temperature. We sure are smart!

Edited January 20, 2013 by Dolos

[waterboy 2.0]

lol...where the threat? If you feel threatened that was not my intent.

(No PM by the way....)

No more feeding the trolls....

[whitewind]

Careful Waterboy.

Deniers will plague you and claim all sorts of nonsense and goad you into saying something largely innocuous that they will blow out of all proportion and then claim that you have threatened / abused them, and then sit back and claim that climate change isn't real because you are aggressive and rude.

They are half-way insane.

[Dolos]

lol...where the threat? If you feel threatened that was not my intent.

(No PM by the way....)

No more feeding the trolls....

Bring it on sunshine Feel free to PM me if you care to bring it and I will happily give you a taste of my character

That sounds like a threat to me. What were your intentions should I pm you? Were you going to write me a poem? What was your intent then? Does me sending you a PM make a 'man out of me'? Does it make a man out of you that I didn't? I wonder if anyone else is sick to death of "No more feeding trolls". The only one trolling was you. Look at your contribution or lack of.

[Dolos]

Teacher: 2 plus 2 equals 4

Student: Where is the evidence for that?

Teacher: Good question. 2 blocks here, plus 2 blocks there. Put them together, and what do you get?

Student: But how do you know?

Teacher: You can do that with any 2 groups of anything. Here look, there are 2 books, and over there, 2 more books. Bring them together, and what do you get?

Student: I don't believe you.

Teacher: Huh?

Student: One of the other students said you were lying. I believe him.

Teacher: All other teachers of basic maths say the same, the evidence is pretty obvious.

Student: I saw you with 3 blocks and 1 block the other day, you are such a hypocrite.

Teacher: What does that have to do with it?

Student: If you use 3 blocks, you can't believe 2 and 2 makes 4.

Teacher: Put 2 blocks with another 2 and you always get 4! Just because 3 and 1 make the same result, doesn't mean that one of them is false. The evidence is there, you just have to look at it.

Student: What evidence?

Teacher: I just showed you. Can we move on and discuss what to do with it?

Student: Where is your skepticism?

Teacher: Get out of my class, please.

Student: How dare you, you are so rude! I do not believe you and won't get out of the class!

Teacher: (Takes deep breath):

Where do we go from here? Dolos, if you refuse to believe the basic evidence, which is freely available for you to look at, then there can be nothing to discuss. Go and do some research first.

Better still, try to figure out how science actually works.

It's like having a discussion about evolution which gets permanently disrupted by creationists who refuse to bring any real evidence to the table, and refuse to accept basic science. It's incredibly frustrating and ultimately doesn't resolve anything. Or a cactus thread which gets spammed by someone who is only interested in algae. If you want to talk about algae, or creationism, or conspiracy theories, please go and start your own thread and see how far you get.

I respectfully suggest, Dolos, that you don't know what you are talking about, and never will, unless you accept basic science and move on from there. Until you do, nothing you say on this subject will make any sense whatsoever. This thread is discussing a real, observable, scientifically measurable phenomena, and what to do about it.

I'm sorry if you are offended by this, but you are creating serious problems with your inability to communicate at the same level as everyone else, and misunderstanding the basic premise of this thread. Seriously, I want to have a sensible, grown up discussion about climate change and what we should be doing about it and am very much over listening to crackpot theories and rhetoric from people who don't have a clue what they are talking about. You are sounding increasingly fanatical about your inherent inability to trust science, and I am trying to be polite when I suggest you do some work on at least attempting to find out where this discussion comes from instead of just spouting off.

I'm sorry about the use of analogies, I can see why you dislike them, but I'm trying to get through to you where I am coming from. I can't think of any other way of explaining to you just how insane you sound to me. You have become obsessed about something you know nothing about and refuse to accept that anyone else might be right, not even just a little bit. You asked me where the evidence is, after I showed you several data points. There isn't enough evidence there Dolos, I know that and have never claimed that it was. But this was just one small tiny piece of evidence in one of the largest studies based in science ever done by human beings, and you refuse to accept any of the results, with no explanation of why. I can't give you the evidence here Dolos, you know I can't, it's been compiled elsewhere and is massive, so massive I suspect you haven't even gone and had a look because it's just so overwhelming.

This is a serious problem on so many levels, where people can have belief systems which are based on very little evidence. It's in politics, it's in the economy, it's in law, it's in religion, it's everywhere. How can we get beyond this problem and start building a society based on calm logic and scientific understanding? How can science be built into our education system so we don't have people going off on weird tangents and potentially wrecking everything with their crazy ideas and inability to accept reality?

Mate, they love this over at climate change dispatch.....Your a hit!

[Halcyon Daze]

This should help simply things a bit better for you dolos.

I guess you can take it as irrefutable evidence since it is in your preferred cartoon format.

[whitewind]

Mate, they love this over at climate change dispatch.....Your a hit!

That sounds moderately horrific

[Halcyon Daze]

Yeah, they are not scientific at all. In their opening statement they say they are dedicated to debunking climate change etc. They are biased to begin with and can be 'taken with a grain of salt' on this basis alone.

I wonder where they get their funding from? The mega-rich polluters no doubt. If they were to take the fair and balanced approach then their funding would be cut real quick and they would be out of their cushy jobs.

You're a sucker for propaganda Dolos, and yet you seem to think you're some discerning thinker. if you're such an authority on the matter why not study climate science or something. Sacrifice some of your time and money for the greater cause.

[Kee]

Could explain why the warming stopped.

Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming

M. Beenstock¹, Y. Reingewertz¹, and N. Paldor²

¹Department of Economics, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem, Israel

²Fredy and Nadine Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel

Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/3/561/2012/esdd-3-561-2012.html

I find it ironic that you quote a statistical report about the correlative properties within a dataset. Do you understand their methodology? Do you understand their interpretation of statistically significant? I could be wrong, but do you have any idea what the hell you've just quoted is saying or did you just read the single sentence and assume it was supportive to your rhetoric?

(Statistics Major)

[Dolos]

Sacrifice some of your time and money for the greater cause.

I do...I sacrifice my hard earned just paying extra for everything because of our liar of a Prime Ministers carbon tax that is never going to change the climate. It would be foolish in the extreme to think it would. I also give up enough time just trying to keep you two educated. Anything else would just be fanatical, alarmist and a complete and utter waste of time. It’s your cult not mine. Apparently it is very difficult to get those caught up within a cult to even recognize they have a problem in the first place. They get all their information only from those that will back up their beliefs. I put a paper up before that was ‘real science’ to use your often repeated phrase. You guys just dismissed it cause it was not what you wanted to hear. Real fingers in your ears la la la la stuff. You are much happier if you can report on forrest devastation and so on. To bad there is nearly always a myriad of other reasons for it but when you can use it support your cult then why not….You can do much better than what you have been offering up of late Halcyon Daze! Your just dribbling on in support of whitewind. Just stick to the debate. Who knows...you might just learn something and so may I.

[Dolos]

I find it ironic that you quote a statistical report about the correlative properties within a dataset. Do you understand their methodology? Do you understand their interpretation of statistically significant? I could be wrong, but do you have any idea what the hell you've just quoted is saying or did you just read the single sentence and assume it was supportive to your rhetoric?

(Statistics Major)

You find it Ironic? Ironic compared to what? Are you saying this report is supportive to an alternative view? And whats with "do you have any idea what the hell you've just quoted" You make it sound like I just started world war 3 with a bump of a button...I feel that yes I do know what it's saying and I also know that many others interpret it the same way. Some of them are scientists....You, by your agressive first interaction on this thread are obviously a true believer. So be it mr statistic major....like that matters!

[Halcyon Daze]

Statistics Major!?!! My hat goes off to you sir. Stats was hardcore, but you went all out and went for the Major... Respect!

Its Ecology and Sustainability for me. We did a fair bit of climate science since that's all that's really gonna matter soon.

[Dolos]

[Dolos]

Shit Halcyon...look at the iceberg then look at your avatar then back at the iceberg then back to your avatar...how scary...they look so alike...

Just a bit of sunday arvo humour for you...

[Dolos]

And by the way...you don't have to be part of your cult to be all for Ecology and Sustainability! Do you think only cult members are concerned for the wellfare of the planet? I live as sustainable as I can. I'm just not alarmist. Sorry!

[Halcyon Daze]

Dolos... Maaate!

You mean you've never studied anything to do with climate science? I never realized you lacked any actual 'formal training' in this stuff...

Sure had me going lol

[qualia]

but what i don't understand, dolos, is you say the globe isn't warming and there's nothing to worry about. yet clearly temperatures are greater than they have been in the past, and there's bushfires all over australia. and all we need is another el nino to push up temperatures even more and things get really serious but you say global warming isn't real and there's nothing to worry about?

clearly temperatures are hotter than they have been, and there are serious consequences due to that. how is it that you can say otherwise?

[qualia]

i mean, heat records are being broken and it's "only" an "average" year (meaning there's no enso to push temperatures up). when there's another el nino, and there will be another one, things are just going to get worse. but you say emphatically that temperatures are not higher, and even if they were there's nothing to be concerned about. clearly there is.

[Halcyon Daze]

Oh I get it now, Dolos is aiming to be the "quintessential denier". The model that all others can be compared with.

Let's see now, He's strongly biased to begin with.

He maintains Climate Change is all part of a "Grand Conspiracy'.

He's created an parallel universe / alternate reality for himself.

He only wants to accept pseudo science that backs his views, while disregarding the multitudes of scientific works that challenge it.

He accuses others of not being qualified to speak on CC, while not actually being qualified himself.

When he gets caught out he starts accusing, threatening and slandering everyone in frantic fits of rage.

His main objective seems to be more about proving himself to be "right all along", than debating the actual issues.

And he'll be clutching at straws 'till the day he dies even if climate change is the very thing he dies of.

Thanks Dolos, you're gifting us with a superb learning opportunity, we can really gain a real insight into denialism from you.

(He's also obsessed with Al Gore and the IPCC, muddles science with politics, and gets most of his info from cartoonists)

Edited January 20, 2013 by Halcyon Daze

[whitewind]

Dolos also promised to leave after being terribly outraged at being challenged, and then proceeded to post more in one day than in the previous month.

Dolos is desperate to "win" the argument at whatever cost, which is fully at odds with everyone else who wants to discuss the results and what they might mean to us. That's the main reason why we can never see eye to eye, the only thing we are trying to win now is a bit of space where we can talk and not be harangued by people who don't want us to. In that regard, perhaps Dolos IS winning.

It is slightly sociopathic, though.

[Dolos]

ROFLMAO....wow did I get the little kiddies hot and bothered yesterday. The last five responses from you guys are and obvious display of just how pissed off I got you. Mission accomplished...I had a great day, so thanks. And as a bonus I gave the boys over at climate change dispatch a good old chuckle at your arrogance and foolishness, particularly whiteboy. And whiteboy.Your finished with me so don't bother. I won't read your juvenile posts any more. Straight out of grade school stuff from you. You even write like a kid. I'll be a lot more active here from now on. There is just so much out there that debunks you lot but just not enough hours in the day. Bring the hand puppet guy back too. He’s good value even if he contributes nothing but shit and insults.