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The Great Global Warming/Cooling Thread Part 2

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Europe's heatwave has brought a savage summer as climate change slashes the odds of more like it

ANALYSIS THE CONVERSATION BY ANDREW KING AND BEN HENLEY
The sun rises in a brilliant orange sky over a boat on still water
PHOTO 

The sun rises at Cullercoats Bay on England's north east coast on Thursday, as the UK prepares to sizzle through a 35 degree day.

AP: OWEN HUMPHREYS

In Australia we know about sweltering summer heat. We all remember the images of burned koala paws, collapsing tennis playersand, far more seriously, the tragic events of Black Saturday.

 

Aussies may scoff at Britain's idea of a heatwave, but this time it's the real deal and it's no laughing matter.

Extreme heat has hit locations throughout the Northern Hemisphere, in places as far apart as Montreal, Glasgow, Tokyo and Lapland. In the past few weeks heat records have been broken in a wide range of places, most notably:

Heat has not been the only problem. Much of northern Europe is experiencing a very persistent drought, with little to no measurable rainfall in months. This has caused the normally lush green fields of England and other European countries to turn brown and even reveal previously hidden archaeological monuments.There have also been major wildfires in northern EnglandSweden and, most recently and devastatingly, Greece. The Greek wildfires came off the back of a very dry winter and spring.

What's behind the extreme heat?

The jet stream, a high-altitude band of air that pushes weather systems around at lower altitudes, has been weaker than normal.

It has also been positioned unusually far to the north, particularly over Europe. This has kept the low-pressure systems that often drive wind and rain over northern Europe at bay.

The jet stream has remained locked in roughly the same position over the Atlantic Ocean and northern Europe for the past couple of months. This has meant that the same weather types have remained over the same locations most of the time.

Weather is typically more transient than it has been recently. Even when we do have blocking high-pressure systems associated with high temperatures in northern Europe, they don't normally linger as long as this.

Is it driven by climate change?

Although climatologists have made great strides in recent years in the field of event attribution — identifying the human climate fingerprint on particular extreme weather events — it is hard to quantify the role of climate change in an event that is still unfolding.

Until the final numbers are in we won't be able to tell just how much climate change has altered the likelihood or intensity of these particular heat extremes.

Having said that, we can use past analyses of extreme heat events, together with future climate change projections, to infer whether climate change is playing a role in these events.

We also know that increasing numbers of hot temperature recordsare being set, and that the increased probability of hot temperature records can indeed be attributed to the human influence on the climate.

In Europe especially, there is already a large body of literature that has looked at the role of human-caused climate change in heat extremes.

In fact, the very first event attribution study, led by Peter Stott from the UK Met Office, found that human-caused climate change had at least doubled the likelihood of the infamous European heatwave of 2003.

For all manner of heat extremes in Europe and elsewhere, including in Japan, a clear and discernible link with climate change has been made.

Research has also shown that heat extremes similar to those witnessed over the past month or two are expected to become more common as global temperatures continue to climb. The world has so far had around 1℃ of global warming above pre-industrial levels, but at the global warming limits proposed in the Paris climate agreement, hot summers like that of 2003 in central Europe would be a common occurrence.

At 2℃ of global warming, the higher of the two Paris targets, 2003-like hot summers would very likely happen in most years.

Similarly, we know that heat exposureand heat-induced deaths in Europe will increase with global warming, even if we can limit this warming to the levels agreed in Paris.

Haven't summers always been hot?

For most parts of the world summers have got warmer, and the hottest summer on record is relatively recent — such as 2003 in parts of central Europe and 2010 in much of eastern Europe.

One exception is central England, where the hottest summer remains 1976, although it may be challenged this year.

While extreme hot summers and heatwaves did happen in the past, they were less common. One big difference as far as England is concerned is that its extreme 1976 heatwave was a global outlier, whereas this year's isn't.

In 1976 north-western Europe had higher temperature anomalies than almost anywhere else on the globe. In June 2018 the same region was unusually warm, but so was most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.

So while the persistent weather patterns are driving much of the extreme heat we're seeing across the Northern Hemisphere, we know that human-caused climate change is nudging the temperatures up and increasing the odds of new heat extremes.

Andrew King is ARC DECRA fellow and Ben Henley is research fellow in Climate and Water Resources at the University of Melbourne. This article originally appeared on The Conversation.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-27/europe-heatwave-and-climate-change/10040604

 

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That's some good info and examples there for you Dual, and if you think areas having extreme cold weather dismisses the facts presented than you still haven't researched jet streams and there mechanisms or do not understand it and the role they play in weather

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Even if you think it is all bs dual it is still wise to make a small investment in some dried grain, pulses etc and lots of salt for multiple purposes to have a supply ready, a min 3 months worth, a small investment that could very well help prolong you and your loved ones life if major crops fail in large and shit goes bang, at least it feels better to have some form of prep for the possibility, some sense of control or insurance.

 

When the products get close to the use by date you can eat it, donate it etc and re-buy to maintain stock.

It's good to have a seed bank as well and if ya wanna take it a step further, some animal traps and a bow, some of these basics are good to have as a just in case, i would also get a first aid kit and manual and small surgical kit and some books on the topic such as this one https://www.dymocks.com.au/book/ranger-medic-handbook-by-defense-9781634503327/?utm_source=googleps&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3oiy2JS-3AIVzamWCh1sYQ3xEAYYASABEgLNwPD_BwE#.W1toS7gvyt8

Some bush tucker and bush medicine books for your area is also good to have and study.

Learning how to ferment foods is a good skill as well as other food processing like dehydrating and making meat jerky etc.

 

All of that is some good basics and is only a small monetary investment so no big loss if none of it is needed.

 

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It's a funny world this one, where scientists are ignored and "experts" (paid to be sceptics) are given airtime to manipulate and confuse the population on critical issues like our environment. What's even stranger is that some people ignore the overwhelming evidence and prefer the doubt and confusion portrayed by the sceptics. 

 

It's really not rocket science the environmental issue of carbon dioxide and other polluting gases. Scientists have been explaining the effect since the 1950's. 

 

I'm sad to say this DualWield, but you are listening to deliberately sowed doubt that has no basis in reality. You are ignoring every logical reply and refuse to take on board what is happening. I think the only time you will ever believe is when you are dramatically effected in a personal way.

 

You're not alone though. Many people have been fooled. It's okay man.

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On 7/26/2018 at 2:30 PM, waterboy 2.0 said:

All you've established in this thread is your an argumentative, self-opinionated trolling bitch. 

 

You do come out with some funny ironic  shit, because there's no science nor logic from  your quarter. 

 

No doubt you get the same traction at home.... Where they build walls for fear of the sea... With good reason. 

 

Lol, special kid.

 

Again just dropping by for name calling i see

 

The walls for the sea, ah yes it's cause the sea is rising (climate change)

 

FFS you are even dumber then the lack of you beeing able to properly formulate sentences makes you look like

 

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11 hours ago, Northerner said:

It's a funny world this one, where scientists are ignored and "experts" (paid to be sceptics) are given airtime to manipulate and confuse the population on critical issues like our environment. What's even stranger is that some people ignore the overwhelming evidence and prefer the doubt and confusion portrayed by the sceptics. 

 

It's really not rocket science the environmental issue of carbon dioxide and other polluting gases. Scientists have been explaining the effect since the 1950's. 

 

I'm sad to say this DualWield, but you are listening to deliberately sowed doubt that has no basis in reality. You are ignoring every logical reply and refuse to take on board what is happening. I think the only time you will ever believe is when you are dramatically effected in a personal way.

 

You're not alone though. Many people have been fooled. It's okay man.

 

 

Dude, i can think for myself

 

And i'm not an in doom invested agent either

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Waterboy you retarded dumb fuck, lol

 

Temperatures only have risen 1 degree in a 100 years

 

Go read facebook more lol

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maasvlakte-2-juni-2015-foto-port-of-rott

 

Pretty obviously, the challenge still stands

 

Come up with only 1 negative effect of this climate crisis we are in

Edited by DualWieldRake

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11 hours ago, Northerner said:

dramatically effected

 

1 negative effect, you may even quote it

Edited by DualWieldRake

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11 hours ago, Northerner said:

 but you are listening to deliberately sowed doubt

 

That's gonna be the second challenge, show me a sceptical source lol

 

I know there are complete organizations just for denying deniers, but i haven't come across many actual deniers.

 

Most people choose to be ignorant, and side with the popular view.

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wtf is wrong with you man? if this wasnt a forum and we were chatting in real life, would it be constructive to call someone "dumb as fuck" or are you just being a keyboard warrior. 6 post in a row in the same thread, your just talking to yourself mate. All of those points could have been made in a single post if you put abit of time into planning your post rather than raging on some knee jerk reaction. If your aussie and your awake this early on a Saturday morning, posting here instead of enjoying the eclipse, then it might be time to reconsider your priorities. 

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I thought manners were out of the window before i replied to that load of crap.

 

This is a forum, if it was real life we probably weren't chatting.

 

Eclipses are cool enjoy, i've watched a bunch (here in the netherlands)

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22 hours ago, DualWieldRake said:

Waterboy you retarded dumb fuck, lol

 

Temperatures only have risen 1 degree in a 100 years

Wow nice decorum man, totally unwarranted and unnecessary

 

The arctic is warming at a greater rate (and if the permafrost melts there will be a release of methane, a much faster acting and potent greenhouse gas)

5b5bc769d1dd0_arctictempgraph.thumb.png.fc6803c5e94c423e4bbb935f6385bd79.pngClimate-graph-1024x707.thumb.png.3ba315e840bbdab91b1cf2706a25d3a7.pnggistemp_graph_2015.thumb.png.c8a24f16091113fc18cf42048018f8fc.png

 

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2458/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal/

 

 

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22 hours ago, DualWieldRake said:

Come up with only 1 negative effect of this climate crisis we are in

Well here is one more, increased ocean temps give extra fuel/energy for storms/hurricanes etc.

 

22 hours ago, DualWieldRake said:

FFS you are even dumber then the lack of you beeing able to properly formulate sentences makes you look like

Hahaha take a look in the mirror man, wow

 

What is it you are wanting to achieve in this thread ? You insult people, call them dumb etc. yet you yourself spout unsubstantiated opinions and platitudes, now if you will think a little and try to demonstrate coherent counter arguments that would be great, if you can't do this why should one listen to you or even continue to discuss this issue with you ?

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, DualWieldRake said:

 

FFS you are even dumber then the lack of you beeing able to properly formulate sentences makes you look like

 

 

This sentence above, in itself, is not a 'properly formulated' sentence.

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On 7/28/2018 at 4:04 AM, bardo said:

Well here is one more, increased ocean temps give extra fuel/energy for storms/hurricanes etc.

 

Hahaha take a look in the mirror man, wow

 

What is it you are wanting to achieve in this thread ? You insult people, call them dumb etc. yet you yourself spout unsubstantiated opinions and platitudes, now if you will think a little and try to demonstrate coherent counter arguments that would be great, if you can't do this why should one listen to you or even continue to discuss this issue with you ?

 

 

 

 

You too fail at the challenge.

 

Dumb fucks

Edited by DualWieldRake

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Climate would naturally be warming in this phase DualWield, though it is being exacerbated and brought quickly... some facts that you were after

 

• Temperatures are rising world-wide due to greenhouse gases trapping more heat in the atmosphere.

• Droughts are becoming longer and more extreme around the world.

• Tropical storms becoming more severe due to warmer ocean water temperatures.

• As temperatures rise there is less snowpack in mountain ranges and polar areas and the snow melts faster.

• Overall, glaciers are melting at a faster rate.

• Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean around the North Pole is melting faster with the warmer temperatures.

• Permafrost is melting, releasing methane into the atmosphere.

• Sea levels are rising, threatening coastal communities and estuarine ecosystems.

• The ocean is absorbing around 22 million tonnes a day of carbon dioxide, and is acidifying.

• The current extinction event is accelerating.

 

Every single one of these things can be referenced with evidence by highlighting them and right-clicking search. I'm not a fanaticist and do not think that the whole thing is caused by humans, but the changes we have made in our ecosystems are undeniable and anyone with an ounce of logical extrapolation can see that we are a contributing part of these changes that are happening.

 

What a lot of people fail to realise though is what these changes mean is that we will have a wetter world, as there will be much more water in the atmosphere, not a drier one. That's great for plants and tropical rainforests, but a pain in the bum for much of the world's population that is going to be washed out of their homes and cities and find their food sources either disrupted or broken.

 

The "proof" you are screaming for is widely documented, though the finalisation required in the scientific method, that something needs to be reproducible is never going to be available... because we only have one planet.

 

You can deny all of the studies that show there is an acceleration of all the points above if you wish, but that doesn't make any of the millions of correlating data points invalid. The world is rapidly changing, there is no scientist that denies that... there's only a vast minority who insist that somehow the ecological changes we have made have nothing to do with it.

 

Either way, as I said before... It's not the end of the world looming. Just the end of majority of the organisms on it, including us. All will recycle and we will be just part of the fossil record for some other curious creature to dig up and examine.

 

 

Edited by Northerner
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Quote

Every single one of these things can be referenced with evidence by highlighting them and right-clicking search.

i had no idea you could do that. awesome, thanks.

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On 30/07/2018 at 3:12 AM, Northerner said:

The "proof" you are screaming for is widely documented, though the finalisation required in the scientific method, that something needs to be reproducible is never going to be available... because we only have one planet.

Great point there Northerner

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 "laughing" 

 

 Trolling dumb fuck:lol:

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Sorry a bit off topic.

DualWieldRake You started a thread somewhere asking for business advise. This is may not be the right place, nor the sort of advise you where looking for, but in the true spirit of many of your posts, I'm going to give it anyway.

You started a seed shop, and advertised it on here. Seems like a smart move, given pretty much every one on here, as well as everyone that looks on here, is a potential customer. You then go on several threads insulting people. At times you even insult whole groups of people, gays for instance. Now I'm not gay, but this sort of stuff still effects where I want to spend my money. I bet I'm not the only one.

Mate in business your not only selling your products, your selling your self.

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Arctic Circle hits 32C as Europe heatwave nears record temperatures

 

Summer heat brings disaster to Europe

 

 

 
 

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Summer heat brings disaster to Europe
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Temperatures in the Arctic Circle have reached upwards of 32C, as Europe swelters through an extraordinary heatwave.

The weather station in Banak, in the far north of Norway, recorded temperatures of 32.4C.

That particular area in Norway has an average maximum temperature in summer of 16.9C.

 

Reindeer in the country were photographed drinking water among swimmers as the temperature reached scorching levels.

 

Meanwhile, Spain and Portugal are bracing for the mercury to break the all-time European heat record of 48C later this week.

 

The heatwave gripping large stretches of Europe has already been blamed for deadly forest fires and crop failures. Now freshwater fish could be its next victims.

 

Some regions in Germany sweltered as the mercury hit 39C and the German Meteorological Office said the country's record of 40.3C could be topped as the week continues.

 

Rivers like the Rhine and the Elbe have soaked up so much heat that fish are beginning to suffocate.

"I'm expecting a tragedy as soon as next week," Philipp Sicher from the Swiss Fishery Association told German news agency dpa.

 

In Hamburg, authorities collected almost five metric tons of dead fish from ponds over the weekend, dpa reported. Firefighters have started pumping fresh water into some ponds and lakes in a bid to raise oxygen levels.

 

Scientists say the record heat seen in Europe but also North America and parts of Asia this year points to the influence of man-made climate change and could become more common in future.

 

Several of Germany's nuclear power stations are reducing energy output because rivers used to cool the power plants are too warm.

 

The low water levels have also made shipping more difficult, with a complete ban imposed on boats on the Oder river in eastern Germany.

 

Meanwhile, the country's Farmer's Association is asking the government for 1 billion euros (A$1.57 billion) in financial aid to help cover losses from this year's poor harvest.

 

Association president Joachim Rukwied said German farmers expect the grain harvest to be 20 percent smaller than last year, with rapeseed crops down 30 percent, as it has barely rained during the past 12 weeks, dpa reported.

A group representing potato farmers said they're expecting harvests to be 25 percent smaller than last year and warned that the losses may lead not only to more expensive but also shorter French fries — because the spuds are so small this year.

 

The oceans, too, have been affected.

 

No swimming

People enjoy the warm temperatures and bright sunshine as they crowd a beach in the Baltic Sea resort of Miedzyzdroje, northwestern Poland. (AAP) People enjoy the warm temperatures and bright sunshine as they crowd a beach in the Baltic Sea resort of Miedzyzdroje, northwestern Poland. (AAP)

Authorities in Poland last week banned swimming at over 50 beaches along its Baltic Sea coast, after hot weather led to the growth of toxic bacteria in the unusually warm sea. Water temperatures in the Baltic Sea exceeded 23C in some places. Emergency water rescuers told vacationers on hot, sandy beaches — from Swinoujscie in the west to Gdynia in the east — not to enter the sea, where thick, green-brown cyanobacteria colonies have grown and pose a health threat.

 

Police in western Germany, meanwhile, rushed to where callers overnight reported hearing frantic screaming from a woman — but it turned out that a hospital had opened its windows because of the heat and several women there were in labor. 

 

Police dogs in the Swiss city of Zurich have been getting special shoes to prevent them from burning their paws on the scorching streets. Swiss authorities have also cancelled traditional fireworks displays in some areas during Wednesday's national holiday celebrations, citing the high risk of forest fires.

Across Europe, forest fires have already caused major damage.

 

On July 23, at least 91 people died in a wildfire in Greece — the deadliest in Europe for decades.

In Spain, 27 of the country's 50 provinces are at "extreme risk" from heat beginning on Thursday, the national weather agency said.

 

In neighbouring Portugal, the General Directorate for Health warned about dust blowing in from North Africa and authorities said almost 11,000 firefighters and 56 aircraft are on standby to tackle forest fires.

 

Some are benefiting from the simmering heat.

Beer brewers in Germany have seen sales rise 0.6 percent, or 300,000 hectolitres in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year.

"Especially the alcohol-free types are currently very much sought after," said Marc-Oliver Huhnholz, from the German Brewer-Association.

 

In Denmark, where the Meteorological Institute reported that the month of July has been the sunniest since they started recording data in 1920, sales of alcoholic beverages dropped in favour of non-alcoholic beers, sodas and white wine, the country's TV2 reported.

 

https://www.9news.com.au/world/2018/08/01/12/10/arctic-circle-hits-32c-as-europe-heatwave-nears-record-temperatures

Edited by waterboy 2.0
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On 8/5/2018 at 1:23 AM, Crop said:

Sorry a bit off topic.

DualWieldRake You started a thread somewhere asking for business advise. This is may not be the right place, nor the sort of advise you where looking for, but in the true spirit of many of your posts, I'm going to give it anyway.

You started a seed shop, and advertised it on here. Seems like a smart move, given pretty much every one on here, as well as everyone that looks on here, is a potential customer. You then go on several threads insulting people. At times you even insult whole groups of people, gays for instance. Now I'm not gay, but this sort of stuff still effects where I want to spend my money. I bet I'm not the only one.

Mate in business your not only selling your products, your selling your self.

Indeed.

 

Reputation is much easier to lose and much harder to get back than money.

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