CSIRO estimates petrol at $8/L in 10 years

[Torsten]

and I always thought my estimates of $4/L was a bit far fetched...

===============================

The Fuel for Thought report by the Future Fuels Forum outlines the worst case scenario if the demand for oil outstrips supply and the nation does not shift to alternative fuel supplies.

Monica Richter, from the Australian Conservation Foundation, says time is running out to address the issue.

"We have a big challenge ahead to de-carbonise our society and the sooner we start doing it the less it's going to cost us in the future," she said.

"We hope the report is a conversation starter for sane, long-term thinking for reducing our dependence on oil and dealing with the challenge of climate change."

Petroleum engineer Phil Hart from the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas believes it will not be long before the demand for oil will outstrip supply.

"Oil production has been essentially flat since 2005, and we have only another couple of years at this same sort of level of production before we start seeing oil production going into decline," he said.

The head of GM Holden has welcomed the report into the effects of rising oil prices, saying the industry is facing one of the most challenging market conditions in recent history.

Managing director Mark Reuss says the automotive industry needs to adapt to the changing global conditions.

"With the fuel prices, the government interest and industry interest at levels never seen before this is truly a transformational time for both Holden and auto industry to on leverage ourselves from fossil fuels," Mr Reuss said.

[TheFriendlyPlanter]

Makes me wonder why Rudd talks of an Aussie hybrid car rarther than a straight-out hydrogen or electric.

Put me down for TWO!

I really wonder if he has the balls to do something great while at the helms.

[mu!]

Someone come up with a hybrid/hydrogen add-on, that'd be sweet. That'd be much more appealing than havin to fork out heaps of cash for a new car, especially if you're emotionally attached to your current car

[~shameless~]

Nah we can't have electric cars, our power grid couldn't cope with the amount of charging going on all of the time(what)

Just too hard for em isn't it- one farkn excuse after another

I honestly thought they would be jumping at any chance to burn more coal and creat more jobs in the coal minning industry

I f they can make electric forklifts that can carry 2 ton around all day at 13km per hour, why cant they make a car that goes 60km per hour and carry 150 kg of people for half a day, i'd drive one for sure

Maybe its just around the corner (wishful thinking)

I'v budgeted for fuel to get to about $2.80 per litre, after that i'm just gonna have to start using roller blades or something! maybe get a job closer to home,

[Torsten]

we worked out that at $2/L [diesel] we could make our own cheaper [from new plant material - wages inclusive]. We're not far off from that. In fact, I think that we probably won't have the plant materials till the price is at $3, so it will be well worthwhile.

The thing I don't get it that people keep talking about whether 'peak oil' is real or not. Who cares?! I mean, even if it is not real, it's not going to help us if we are serious about reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In fact, we should be making a huge effort to leave the rest of the carbon in the ground cos it is going to cost us a shitload more to put it back there to save the planet.

On a tangent, I was actually thinking the other day that making plastic consumer goods is probably not a bad idea as long as we don't burn them. Plastics are made from oil and most plastics are very stable. Much more stable than wood for example, so plastics are less likely to release their carbon back into the air in the short term. So if we want to have some long term carbon sinks, then all we need to do is to use carbon from a short carbon cycle [eg plants] and turn it into non-biodegradable plastics. These are then put into landfills as a long term carbon sink.

[JDanger]

Torsten for Prime Minister!

[ThunderIdeal]

in the short term plastic might be better, and it's probably not so bad when it ends up in landfills. there was a thread here about some heap of plastic in the pacific which i think blew a lot of peoples' minds. it basically said that plastics just break down into tiny particles of plastic, and that concentrations of plastic in human bodies are on the rise. in the long term, unburied plastic will probably start choking out eco-systems.

[FungalFractoids]

Erm... Not that I disagree but where does the article mention the CSIRO?

edit

Ah, my mistake

http://www.csiro.au/resources/FuelForThoughtReport.html

It´s just when I saw a quote from the ACF and nothing from the CSIRO I jumped to conclusions - didn´t realise the report was comissioned by the CSIRO

Edited August 20, 2008 by FungalFractoids

[Fenris]

we worked out that at $2/L [diesel] we could make our own cheaper [from new plant material - wages inclusive]. We're not far off from that. In fact, I think that we probably won't have the plant materials till the price is at $3, so it will be well worthwhile.

I think you can use canola oil straight from the supermarkes shelves as a diesel replacement. I believe that biodiesel enthusiasts buy the 20 & 50 L drums directly from the canola farmers for close to $1 a L.

Biodiesel does not contain any sulfur either and is less corrosive on the engine components and environment.

[ThunderIdeal]

can anyone confirm that? or can you say it with more certainty?

[paradox]

I think you can use canola oil straight from the supermarkes shelves as a diesel replacement. I believe that biodiesel enthusiasts buy the 20 & 50 L drums directly from the canola farmers for close to $1 a L.

Biodiesel does not contain any sulfur either and is less corrosive on the engine components and environment.

i'm sure for a conventional, unmodified diesel engine, canola oil straight of the supermarket shelf still needs transestrafication & removal of glycerine. a fairly simple process, no more difficult than your everyday A/B alkaloid extraction, if you have the set up.

apparently illegal in oz though?

[Fenris]

I believe you can blend canola oil 50/50 with straight diesel, no modification or transesterification necessary. I saw an old diesel Merc run on straight unmodified (but used) vegetable oil although they added the oil in after the car had been running on diesel already so it was already at running temperature.

There are oil warmers you can buy to run farm equipment on straight canola, it heats it just prior to injection.

The bottom line is if the engine is already at running temp and its not freezing outside, canola will work. Otherwise something like a small diesel start tank to get the engine warm on diesel, then switch over to the main canola tank.

The transesterification process isn't any more difficult than making home brew beer.

And the Gov would like you to keep records of biodiesel made so they can tax you 40c a L yea right.

[GingaNinja]

cant say how credible the source is but i saw a post on a permaculture forum of a person living in tropical south america that ran his diesel engine off straight vege oil. He said because it was so warm where he lived that the oil was always good to go with out preheating or anything like that.

Like i said this is just someone said on a forum so take it as you will

[Torsten]

canola is one of the few oils that can be used as is. Most others need transesterification. I think some of the canberra buses run on straight canola oil btw.

Canol is a very environmentally unfriendly crop. If you take into account fertilisers and fuel input, it takes nearly half a litre of fossil fuel diesel to make one litre of canola oil. Plus you are raping the earth for another season. Bio fuel grown on land that usually produces food is a recipe for failure in the long term. Biofuel that uses more than about 10% fuel input is also doomed.

[Vertmorpheus]

A Blue Kingfisher told me some folks in SEQ (not me, I mean actually not me, I drive a 10 year old unleaded thing) are knocking out BD at about 30 cents (t-h-i-r-t-y) a liter using mainly things they found at swap meets and in the trading post. No Pm's, I don't have details to give. But I have it on a very straight source indeed.

We got rid of our second car awhile ago, and living somewhere with nowhere to really drive to makes it a lot easier to save on fuel. Visiting the grandparents takes a nearly two hour drive, 1:50 of it is serene and green the last 10 minutes is some kind of Death Rally 3000 as people who have been in the car for as long as 20 MINUTES (picking up Emily from Espanola lessons, buying a 6 dollar coffee when they have a thousand dollar machine at home, applying at some mob or other to be even further in debt than they currently are) decide my lil tribe (who live on a weekly amount some of you would assume to be a typo ) needs to DIE so that they can get somewhere, more quickly.

Nevermind we've been in highway zones for hours and hence feel like we're standing still as it is, the dog keeps dropping his guts and if on the way BACK, the car is laden with organically grown fruit n veg, firewood and sensibly chosen retail supplies to keep the "space station" running smoothly. go green, they say. Ease back, they say. Put up with shitful ads with twangtwang music and roads thru empty paddocks, they say...why, so some observer-consumer can mow you down with their mobile debt artifact en route to accumulating yet MORE shit? Still, nice to feel martyred once in a while hey.

I want to know why we can spend a shitload of dosh on say ...sending some pack of (oddly similar looking?) people to CHINA to run around in circles... but not in developing lil household sized solar arrays, bung one in every backyard, convert all these now redundant car factories into making electric scooters or somesuch, charge em up out the back, plug em in to the big banks at work or the nearest powerpoint during the day... flaws with the idea but its more of an idea than just sitting there with your thumb up your bum til you end up having to scab a lift on a shetland pony to go and buy some smokes.

I have long legs and good health, not everyone has... I could understand the almost taoist approach to the looming energy crunch if the cash was instead going on recentralisation (in sensible ways, of course) of communities, increased emphasis on working from home, etc... don't get me wrong, will be a laugh seeing indulged fucks having to waddle about to get whatever... but not so funny seeing say single mum with 4 kids having to get to the doctors and back.

I think half of this country would just about get a rash if they realised how some people actually have to live and break things down, etc, the bullshit economic and resource issues arent just ephemeral and eventual things, they are real and present things for many many people, probably even a fair whack of those you know, even if they aren't letting on... I get a sick kind of giggle going (I have a tendency to break out into high pitched and very disconcerting giggling when I feel like ing people) when I hear couples with a combined income of say... 3 g a week... moaning about fuel prices, as they tuck into an 80 dollar lunch and jump into a two year old car .Cracking up about repayment on the crap they really DON'T need, just they continually feel compelled to live three steps above their station. Funny shit is, anyone I know with old money, real money, grievous amounts of money... live like monks and drive 20 year old cars ;) Taste is timeless, trash is tacky hey. Thats fashionably grizzle-worthy extra amount you complain about putting in your fourby (no thats right theyre compact SUVs these days) each month is what ensures fuel, milk and medication for some people every week Actually, plenty of people... but noone is allowed to admit to "feeling the pinch" in any serious way, are they.

Poor things,

VM

[teonanacatl]

I think its a bit funny to think that oil will run out soon, I do however think the price will still keep rising. Alot of middle east oil nations offer free power (from oil powerplants) and free to really cheap fuel for cars, not somthing you do when you are running out!

One of the chemists who is into cars was of the opinion that turbocharging a diesel was just as good as hybrid cars. Im not the greatest fan of global warming but appreciate the shift in most peoples thinking to one which almost cares. The single greatest thing people can do if they care is stop breeding ie have two kids or less. The second would be to walk or ride more. Probably equal second would be to use nuclear power.

Ive been a fan for years of shredding plastic or chopping it and mixing with other plant matereial to make a multch, I think it would make a great multch.

Im not a fan of most alternative energy sources either (solar, hydro and wind I am), and I think it will be along time before we find somthing as cheap as oil as a fuel source on a global scale.

Electric could be a good alternative if we ran nuclear power. Im amazed actually at the thread I started on this almost a year ago

http://www.shaman-australis.com/forum/inde...showtopic=16037

I certainly didnt expect the poll to show the results it has shown!!!!

[gnomad]

Electric?

Depends where you live. For most of us, right now, it means burning coal. So that means particulate emissions, NOx, SOx, and CO. For every megawatt hour we burn about half a tonne of coal.

Nuclear? What do you do with the waste, and the question is when will that waste come back to haunt us, or our descedants?

Fossil fuels are dying. They are finite. The proof is in the rising cost.

Years ago they weighed up the pros and cons of renewable fuels and the decision was made to go with fossil fuels, mainly due to availability and cost. ...or so they say. You also need to question where the world powers had their money invested.

Things have now changed, the price of crude oil is increasing exponentially. We need to act.

I believe the solution is in renewable fuels like biodiesel and ethanol. Less emissions, cleaner fuels.

A crop can be grown and processed in a matter of months, not thousands of years. They can be grown without artificial fertilisers and the effort/fuel input can be self-sustaining if it is handled correctly. We just need to be smarter about how it's grown, and where.

I agree that we shouldnt necessarily be replacing food crop for fuel crops,

...Although they are the same thing though arent they?

A compromise can be found, as to whether we eat it or burn it.

Edited August 27, 2008 by gnomad

[ThunderIdeal]

gnomad

http://www.shaman-australis.com/forum/inde...showtopic=15553

that thread talks about a biodiesel crop that grows on unusable land.

[PhoenixSon]

Hemp i think would be a good idea aswell.

Been told by a certain person in the DPI that they have been growing this subtlety for at least 4 years in Queensland.

(teonanacatl)

Some middle east countries are trying to have whole cities that are sustainable on renewable energy.

And that they are trying to invest into tourism, means a lot too.

I don't think its going to run out soon, but it's going to be reserved more and more for the people that rich.

Just shits me off that the government keeps on putting off everything until it bites us on the arse!!

[lampy]

I run my toyota hilux diesel on straight vegetable oil. I do a run round my town and pick up 20l containers from various Chinese/fish chip joints.

It is then pumped out using a datsun oil pump powered by a battery drill and through a 5 micron filter into a 205 litre drum.

To run the diesel on straight vege oil i use a small tank of diesel to get the engine started when cold and then use a 6 way solenoid valve to change over to OIL when the engine is up to temperature. The oil runs through a small heat exchanger using engine coolant on the hot side (just tapped off heater hoses).

The engine runs well, no black smoke good power and the exhaust smells nice and popcorny.

I have another car aswell that i have converted to alternate fuel.

I have a 1968 datsun 1000 1.2 litre that runs on straight natural gas. I use a dive compressor to compress the natural gas that comes out of the standard house gas supply (10-100kpa) up to 20 Mpa and store it in a carbon fibre automotive gas tank that i had imported from new zealand(natural gas is used extensivly there). A regulator is used to reduce the pressure down to about 100kpa so that the engine can use it. It is fed into the engine using a standard Impco mixer.

The car runs smooth and quiet with very low emmisions due to the 99% methane in household gas. One drawback is that it doesnt have a huge range. The tank requires filling every 250-300km. The gas is very cheap with no government taxes.

I do not reccomend anyone follow me and convert to natural gas. It is a dangerous and propably very illegal the only reason i do it is because im trained in the area. I work on a natural gas plant as an instrument, electrical and process technician. This is only here for your reading

By the way, none of these cars are used on public roads