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Evil Genius

The Great Global Warming/Cooling Thread Part 2

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"But see those green patches? More suitable! Climate change has no impact! har har!!!1"

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I expect additional CO2 will make a mockery of all other growing conditions making absolutely sure everything will grow like a weed even if there is no soil or rain whatsoever! This is one other thing those pesky scientists will have failed to take into account, along with the sun, cosmic rays, and Lord Monckton et al

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I REMEMBER THAT GUY! LOL


post-8867-0-44186200-1363494731_thumb.jp

Edit: I wonder if he's eating his words now that we have broken so many extreme climate records

Edited by Halcyon Daze

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I REMEMBER THAT GUY! LOL

attachicon.gifMONKTON.jpg

HA ha ha, perfect example of what happens if you cry yourself to sleep alone at nights or if your just really really nasty. Wonder if you shed a tear for any of the Britians who have died because of the cold. Ill keep this post safe for now as an example later of how a much inferior intellect, (YOU) reacts when actual observations fail to back up the shit that you guys have been putting up here for years. Your response? Lets make fun of a guy with a medical condition he has no control over. Okay for guys like you because you are saving the planet. :slap: WAKE UP! NO YOUR NOT. Your costing the planet! What confidence could anyone have in another graph from you lot? Oh look, the IPCC has put out a new graph that shows the end of the world..oh look, lots of red shades of colour, good so far....oh look, thats great newswere all doomed, doomed I tell ya. :wacko: :wacko: :wacko: Quick to post these things but never quick to acknowledge their failings. Too many I suppose so who can keep track? Why would you put your faith in anything that mob put out? What would be their current strike rate for being any where near right? And the rest of us now just laugh at this shit. "the angry summer'...Give us a break!

Edited by watertrade

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yet to see any evidence from you dolos that what you claim is correct.

just more rhetoric,,

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YAWN! Think of something new will ya Qualia....post up some more 'climate models' for us to have a good laugh at a couple of years down the track. I reckon I could find plenty of them from your early days here that have already been proven to be wrong. That may be a fun excercise....

yet to see any evidence from you dolos that what you claim is correct.

just more rhetoric,,

EVIDENCE! Now there is a good word. For years you guys have been posting 'predictions'....'best guess'...The models say..blah blah blah. I continually point out how actual observations show your models are garbage. Absolute crap!The very models you have put so much faith in are your undoing as they unravel. I take great pleasure in laughing at you three in particular. Your bullying of me here hasn't changed the facts. They keep staring you in the face.
The Great Green Con no. 1: The hard proof that finally shows global warming forecasts that are costing you billions were WRONG all along

No, the world ISN'T getting warmer (as you may have noticed). Now we reveal the official data that's making scientists suddenly change their minds about climate doom. So will eco-funded MPs stop waging a green crusade with your money? Well... what do YOU think?

The Mail on Sunday today presents irrefutable evidence that official predictions of global climate warming have been catastrophically flawed.

The graph on this page blows apart the ‘scientific basis’ for Britain reshaping its entire economy and spending billions in taxes and subsidies in order to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. These moves have already added £100 a year to household energy bills.


article-2294560-18B8846F000005DC-184_634

Steadily climbing orange and red bands on the graph show the computer predictions of world temperatures used by the official United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The estimates – given with 75 per cent and 95 per cent certainty – suggest only a five per cent chance of the real temperature falling outside both bands.

But when the latest official global temperature figures from the Met Office are placed over the predictions, they show how wrong the estimates have been, to the point of falling out of the ‘95 per cent’ band completely.

The graph shows in incontrovertible detail how the speed of global warming has been massively overestimated. Yet those forecasts have had a ruinous impact on the bills we pay, from heating to car fuel to huge sums paid by councils to reduce carbon emissions.

The eco-debate was, in effect, hijacked by false data. The forecasts have also forced jobs abroad as manufacturers relocate to places with no emissions targets.

A version of the graph appears in a leaked draft of the IPCC’s landmark Fifth Assessment Report due out later this year. It comes as leading climate scientists begin to admit that their worst fears about global warming will not be realised.

Academics are revising their views after acknowledging the miscalculation. Last night Myles Allen, Oxford University’s Professor of Geosystem Science, said that until recently he believed the world might be on course for a catastrophic temperature rise of more than five degrees this century.

But he now says: ‘The odds have come down,’ – adding that warming is likely to be significantly lower.
Prof Allen says higher estimates are now ‘looking iffy’.

The graph confirms there has been no statistically significant increase in the world’s average temperature since January 1997 – as this newspaper first disclosed last year.

At the end of last year the Met Office revised its ten-year forecast predicting a succession of years breaking records for warmth. It now says the pause in warming will last until at least 2017. A glance at the graph will confirm that the world will be cooler than even the coolest scenario predicted.


Its source is impeccable. The line showing world temperatures comes from the Met Office ‘HadCRUT4’ database, which contains readings from more than 30,000 measuring posts. This was added to the 75 and 95 per cent certainty bands to produce the graph by a group that amalgamates the work of 20 climate model centres working for the IPCC.

Predictions of global warming, based on scientists’ forecasts of how fast increasing CO2 levels would cause temperatures to rise, directly led to Britain’s Climate Change Act. This commits the UK to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.

Much much more here :

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2294560/The-great-green-1-The-hard-proof-finally-shows-global-warming-forecasts-costing-billions-WRONG-along.html#ixzz2NmaxG0lP


Our friends in Britian are starting to come to grips with the big con....

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That may be a fun excercise....

don't let me be the one to stop you

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daily mail, oh my , oh my word

brilliant

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DAILY MAIL?

Your kidding, right?

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challenge dolos, post something that isn't an opinion piece in a right wing tabloid?

hmm? you know, something that isn't overblown rhetoric?

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Keep me out of your personal attacks mate.

In other news...

Alarming new study on climate change says Earth's heat is accelerating superfast

http://www.examiner.com/article/alarming-new-study-on-climate-change-says-earth-s-heat-is-accelerating-superfast

I've never been an alarmist, except if there's a legitimate emergency.

Edited by Halcyon Daze

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Keep me out of your personal attacks mate.

In other news...

Alarming new study on climate change says Earth's heat is accelerating superfast

http://www.examiner.com/article/alarming-new-study-on-climate-change-says-earth-s-heat-is-accelerating-superfast

I've never been an alarmist, except if there's a legitimate emergency.

No stuff you! And I'm not ya mate..MATE! Never was and never will be. You have attacked me personally for years. Just read the thread if your not sure. You and the other 2 stooges playing tag team. I can't help it if you only type here what you THINK all your little friends would like to hear. You have found 'acceptance' here that you can't find anywhere else. I can't help it if you don't have the capacity to THINK for yourself.

OOHHH look...an "alarming" new study.....Don't cry over this one..It's only another study and it doesn't stack up to real life facts. Another one to laugh at and mock down the track in a couple of years. Funny how the STUDY says its warming but when they actually measure the warming they find it's not..Oh dear! How fucked are these fools. Meantime one million Brits died from the cold. And guess what? They are just about to release another dump of IPCC emails. Apparently some very embarrassing stuff but lets wait till they release it before we laugh ourselves silly.

Edited by watertrade

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I just realized, I was responding to one girl and thought it was the other...oh well. You are all like clones of each other so it don't really matter....

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Thank fuck we have a change of government coming that will reverse this nonsense....When people read this stuff day in day out the soon wake up to the con...

Australian Securities & Investments Commission reports record company closures, many blame carbon tax

THE carbon tax is contributing to a record number of firms going to the wall with thousands of employees being laid off and companies forced to close factories that have stood for generations.

Soaring energy bills caused by the Government's climate change scheme have been called the "straw that broke the camel's back" by company executives and corporate rescue doctors who are trying to save ailing firms.

New data from the corporate regulator reveals insolvencies have hit a record high over the past 12 months, led by widespread failures in manufacturing and construction, which accounted for almost one-fifth of collapses.

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission reports there were 10,632 company collapses for the 12 months to March 1 - averaging 886 a month - with the number of firms being placed in administration more than 12 per cent higher than during the global financial crisis.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/companies/australian-securities-investments-commission-reports-record-company-closures-many-blame-carbon-tax/story-fndgp8b1-1226599283585

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I am willing to let this account go. Dolos has only been used for this subject since not long after his conception. Dolos WAS the spirit of trickery and guileIve learnt by experience that you couldnt participate fully on this site if you openly admit that you dont believe in global warming and are willing to say it. Hense, Dolos...Others feel the same as me but are not game to post. If they have been around awhile they would have seen what happened to hutch. My other persona is all over this site but not on this subject, not even from the same url:. Never ever linked to this subject. I learnt how to play the game! I piss myself laughing when I get a like comment from either one of you fools. I have 18 likes alone from whitewind.I hold them so dear to my heart..lol But!!!! Have I done a trade with any of you? Do I have any of your mailing addresss or worse still, your home address? Heres a clueone of you has mine..Its fun playing your gameBut from it you can take a lessonYou may think you are posting here anonymously and for the most part you are. Ultimately we are all traceable and its dead easy. Torston can have me tracked in a second and dont think its not possible for me to track you. Maybe one of you has even given me an address. You can gang up and bully someone for only so long. That person may come back at you in ways you havent thought of. You should never post something about someone that you wouldnt be man enough to say to their face and believe me, I only post what I would say to your face. I have a funny feeling whitewind would cry in that situation.may even piss his girly pants. Do you think you can hide behind your keyboard? Im old school. Thats not a warning. I am simply pointing out to you that at the end of the day you should be prepared to back up your words in person cause you just never know when the need will arise. Maybe you hadn't thought about just how easy it is for a motivated person to track anyone in this country. Keep that in mind when you gang up on the next guy.....He might not be as forgiving as me....Catch ya round

Edited by watertrade
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hindenburg.gif

epic...

Edited by Halcyon Daze
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I am willing to let this account go. Dolos has only been used for this subject since not long after his conception. Top marks to the guy into anal fisting…waterboy I think he likes to call himself. Dolos WAS the spirit of trickery and guile…I‘ve learnt by experience that you couldn’t participate fully on this site if you openly admit that you don’t believe in global warming and are willing to say it. Hense, Dolos...Others feel the same as me but are not game to post as you week minded little pricks chace them off and punish them in other ways. If they have been around awhile they would have seen what happened to hutch. My other persona is all over this site but not on this subject, not even from the same url:. Never ever linked to this subject. I learnt how to play the game! I piss myself laughing when I get a ‘like’ comment from either one of you fools. I have 18 likes alone from ‘whitewind’….I hold them so dear to my heart..lol But!!!! Have I done a trade with any of you? Do I have any of your mailing address’s or worse still, your home address? Heres a clue…one of you has mine…..It’s fun playing your game…But from it you can take a lesson…You may think you are posting here anonymously and for the most part you are. Ultimately we are all traceable and it’s dead easy. Torston can have me tracked in a second and don‘t think it‘s not possible for me to track you. Maybe one of you has even given me an address. You can gang up and bully someone for only so long. That person may come back at you in ways you haven’t thought of. You should never post something about someone that you wouldn’t be man enough to say to their face and believe me, I only post what I would say to your face. I have a funny feeling whitewind would cry in that situation….may even piss his girly pants. Do you think you can hide behind your keyboard? I’m old school. That’s not a warning. I am simply pointing out to you that at the end of the day you should be prepared to back up your words in person cause you just never know when the need will arise. Maybe you hadn't thought about just how easy it is for a motivated person to track anyone in this country. Keep that in mind when you gang up on the next guy.....He might not be as forgiving as me....Catch ya round…

Are we supposed to read any of this nonsense???

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I am willing to let this account go. Dolos has only been used for this subject since not long after his conception. Dolos WAS the spirit of trickery and guileIve learnt by experience that you couldnt participate fully on this site if you openly admit that you dont believe in global warming and are willing to say it. Hense, Dolos...Others feel the same as me but are not game to post as you week minded little pricks chace them off and punish them in other ways. If they have been around awhile they would have seen what happened to hutch. My other persona is all over this site but not on this subject, not even from the same url:. Never ever linked to this subject. I learnt how to play the game! I piss myself laughing when I get a like comment from either one of you fools. I have 18 likes alone from whitewind.I hold them so dear to my heart..lol But!!!! Have I done a trade with any of you? Do I have any of your mailing addresss or worse still, your home address? Heres a clueone of you has mine..Its fun playing your gameBut from it you can take a lessonYou may think you are posting here anonymously and for the most part you are. Ultimately we are all traceable and its dead easy. Torston can have me tracked in a second and dont think its not possible for me to track you. Maybe one of you has even given me an address. You can gang up and bully someone for only so long. That person may come back at you in ways you havent thought of. You should never post something about someone that you wouldnt be man enough to say to their face and believe me, I only post what I would say to your face. I have a funny feeling whitewind would cry in that situation.may even piss his girly pants. Do you think you can hide behind your keyboard? Im old school. Thats not a warning. I am simply pointing out to you that at the end of the day you should be prepared to back up your words in person cause you just never know when the need will arise. Maybe you hadn't thought about just how easy it is for a motivated person to track anyone in this country. Keep that in mind when you gang up on the next guy.....He might not be as forgiving as me....Catch ya round

Accusations of abuse followed by this nice little number about anal fisting. Quoted for posterity Edited by watertrade

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lol, you've outdone yourself this time,

are you seriously threatening people? LOL!!!

well quit talkin' about it and do it by god....

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Ok, I have edited a number of posts to remove most of the personal attacks. there are obviously still tensions between those people above. I ask that everyone just calm down and if we really have to keep the discussion going when it's obvious some people will never change their minds. It's done in a mature way without resorting to personal attacks.

And of course threats will not be tolerated in any way.

Although not done so directly Dolos is coming close in my mind.

If you have any problems with anything I have done you can pm we directly - and not discuss it here.

Edited by watertrade
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Still makes me chuckle.

For the record I am not not allowed to post everything I would say to someone in person if necessary :wink: But hey I'm old school....

Back on topic - effects on critical infrastructure:

Ports alerted to climate change shocks ahead

  • March 16, 2013

Ports will need to be fortified against the effects of climate change, including higher sea levels, storm surges and more erosion, according to the most detailed study of the problem yet undertaken.

The national climate adaption facility examined Sydney, Port Kembla and Gladstone ports - all of which are bottlenecks for imports and exports - and found they could face serious problems by 2070.

''The ports are already starting to see shocks in their supply chains from extreme weather, and without a doubt these are increasing and significant,'' said one of the report's authors, Jane Mullett, a research fellow at Melbourne's RMIT. ''Then in the longer term, the impacts of sea level rise and extreme weather will be felt more and more. So most of them are starting to think through these problems now.''

Dr Mullett and other researchers evaluated a range of climate change scenarios and interviewed port workers to build an online ''toolkit'' to help port authorities adapt to climate change. Among other things, Dr Mullett's report found that the physical fabric of port structures would corrode much more quickly in the future, as sea levels rise and storms become more powerful. In some cases, the lifespan of concrete would decrease by 16 years.

''What we found was that, particularly in smaller or medium-sized ports, they are aware of infrastructure decay, but they tend to work around it because they want ports to remain active and productive for as long as possible. So that may be something that needs to be addressed,'' Dr Mullett said.

Port authorities said they would work through the findings. ''What was interesting to us was the focus on what they call the 'hinterland' - the road and rail links that support the port - because if the port's built to survive sea level rise but you can't get anything in or out, then the port's effectively closed,'' said Mark Ireland, the sustainability manager at the Sydney Ports Corporation.

A single road and a single rail link carry almost all traffic in and out of Port Botany, and they will be at risk of going underwater during storms.

The docks themselves, including the new port extension alongside Sydney Airport's third runway, have been built to withstand sea level rise of up to 0.9 metres by the end of this century - in line with projections from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

''We are aware that the road and rail links do sometimes get inundated, so another 10 or 20 centimetres on top of that and the port's effectively closed,'' Mr Ireland said. ''We have days now where we have to close because the port's too windy.''

Dr Mullett's report, Enhancing the resilience of seaports to a changing climate, was produced with aid from the National Climate Change Adaption Research Facility, funding for which has just expired. As a result, the research unit will cease later this year. ''Our worry is that, if we don't get further funded, important studies like this will end up gathering dust on a shelf somewhere and not being followed through,'' said the facility's deputy director, David Rissik.

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Another link between CO2 and mass extinctions of species

anotherlinkb.jpg

Mass extinctions caused by rapidly escalating levels of CO2 have occurred before. Credit: www.shutterstock.com

(Phys.org) —It's has been know that massive increases in emission of CO2 from volcanoes, associated with the opening of the Atlantic Ocean in the end-Triassic Period, set off a shift in state of the climate which caused global mass extinction of species, eliminating about 34% of genera. The extinction created ecological niches which allowed the rise of dinosaurs during the Triassic, about 250-200 million years ago. New research released this morning in Science Express has refined the dating of this wave of volcanism. It shows marine and land species disappear from the fossil record within 20,000 to 30,000 years from the time evidence for the eruption of large magma flows appears, approximately 201 million years ago. These volcanic eruptions increased atmospheric CO2 and increased ocean acidity.

1-anotherlinkb.jpg

Figure 1 – Trends in atmospheric CO2 and related glacial and interglacial periods since the Cambrian (542 million years ago), showing peaks in CO2 levels (green diamonds) associated with asteroid impacts and/or massive volcanism. CO2 data from Royer 2004 and 2006.

Mass extinctions due to rapidly escalating levels of CO2 are recorded since as long as 580 million years ago. As our anthropogenic global emissions of CO2 are rising, at a rate for which no precedence is known from the geological record with the exception of asteroid impacts, another wave of extinctions is unfolding. Mass extinctions of species in the history of Earth include: the ~580 million years-old (Ma) Acraman impact (South Australia) and Acrytarch (ancient palynomorphs) extinction and radiation Late Devonian (~374 Ma) volcanism, peak global temperatures and mass extinctions the end-Devonian impact cluster associated with mass extinction, which among others destroyed the Kimberley Fitzroy reefs (~360 Ma) the upper Permian (~267 Ma) extinction associated with a warming trend the Permian-Triassic boundary volcanic and asteroid impact events (~ 251 Ma) and peak warming the End-Triassic (201 Ma) opening of the Atlantic Ocean, and massive volcanism an End-Jurassic (~145 Ma) impact cluster and opening of the Indian Ocean the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (K-T) (~65 Ma) impact cluster, Deccan volcanic activity and mass extinction the pre-Eocene-Oligocene boundary (~34 Ma) impact cluster and a cooling trend, followed by opening of the Drake Passage between Antarctica and South America, formation of the Antarctic ice sheet and minor extinction at ~34 Ma.

2-1-anotherlinkb.jpg

Figure 2 – Relations between CO2 rise rates and mean global temperature rise rates during warming periods, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, early Oligocene, mid-Miocene, late Pliocene, Eemian (glacial termination), Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, Medieval Warming Period, 1750-2012 and 1975-2012 periods.

Throughout the Phanerozoic (from 542 million years ago), major mass extinctions of species closely coincided with abrupt rises of atmospheric carbon dioxide and ocean acidity. These increases took place at rates to which many species could not adapt. These events – triggered by asteroid impacts, massive volcanic activity, eruption of methane, ocean anoxia and extreme rates of glaciation (see Figures 1 and 2) – have direct implications for the effects of the current rise of CO2. In February 2013, CO2 levels had risen to near 396.80ppm at Mauna Loa Atmospheric Observatory, compared to 393.54ppm in February 2012. This rise – 3.26ppm per year – is at the highest rate yet recorded. Further measurements show CO2 is at near 400ppm of the atmosphere over the Arctic. At this rate the upper stability threshold of the Antarctic ice sheet, defined at about 500–600ppm CO2 would be reached later this century (although hysteresis of the ice sheets may slow down melting).

3-2-1-anotherlinkb.jpg

Figure 3 – Plot of percent mass extinction of genera versus peak atmospheric CO2 levels at several stages of Earth history.

Our global carbon reserves – including coal, oil, oil shale, tar sands, gas and coal-seam gas – contain considerably more than 10,000 billion tonnes of carbon (see Figure 5). This amount of carbon, if released into the atmosphere, is capable of raising atmospheric CO2 levels to higher than 1000ppm. Such a rise in atmospheric radiative forcing will be similar to that of the Paleocene-Eocene boundary thermal maximum (PETM), which happened about 55 million years-ago (see Figures 1, 2 and 4). But the rate of rise surpasses those of this thermal maximum by about ten times. The Paleocene-Eocene boundary thermal maximum event about 55 million years ago saw the release of approximately 2000 to 3000 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere in the form of methane (CH4). It led to the extinction of about 35-50% of benthic foraminifera (see Figure 3 and 4), representing a major decline in the state of the marine ecosystem. The temperature rise and ocean acidity during this event are shown in Figures 4 and 6.

4-3-2-1-anotherlinkb.jpg

Figure 4 – The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) represented by sediments in the Southern Ocean, central Pacific and South Atlantic oceans. The data indicate a) deposition of an organic matter-rich layer consequent on extinction of marine organisms; B) lowering of δ18O values representing an increase in temperature and c) a sharp decline in carbonate contents of sediments representing a decrease in pH and increase in acidity. Credit: Zachos et al 2008

Based on the amount of carbon already emitted and which could continue to be released to the atmosphere (see Figure 5), current climate trends could be tracking toward conditions like those of the Paleocene-Eocene event. Many species may be unable to adapt to the extreme rate of current rise in greenhouse gases and temperatures. The rapid opening of the Arctic Sea ice, melting of Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets, and rising spate of floods, heat waves, fires and other extreme weather events may signify a shift in state of the climate, crossing tipping points.

5-4-3-2-1-anotherlinkb.jpg

Figure 6 - The Paleocene-Eocene boundary thermal maximum. http://www.uta.edu/faculty/awinguth/petm_research/petm_home.html

Continuing emissions contravene international laws regarding crimes against humanity and related International and Australian covenants. In the absence of an effective global mitigation effort, governments world-wide are now presiding over the demise of future generations and of nature, tracking toward one of the greatest mass extinction events nature has seen. It is time we learned from the history of planet Earth.

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New Research Confirms Global Warming Has Accelerated

Posted on 25 March 2013 by dana1981

A new study of ocean warming has just been published in Geophysical Research Lettersby Balmaseda, Trenberth, and Källén (2013). There are several important conclusions which can be drawn from this paper.

  • Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years. This is because about 90% of overall global warming goes into heating the oceans, and the oceans have been warming dramatically.
  • As suspected, much of the 'missing heat' Kevin Trenberth previously talked abouthas been found in the deep oceans. Consistent with the results of Nuccitelli et al. (2012), this study finds that 30% of the ocean warming over the past decade has occurred in the deeper oceans below 700 meters, which they note is unprecedented over at least the past half century.
  • Some recent studies have concluded based on the slowed global surface warming over the past decade that the sensitivity of the climate to the increased greenhouse effect is somewhat lower than the IPCC best estimate. Those studies are fundamentally flawed because they do not account for the warming of the deep oceans.
  • The slowed surface air warming over the past decade has lulled many people into a false and unwarranted sense of security.

The main results of the study are illustrated in its Figure 1.

BTK13Fig1.jpg

Figure 1: Ocean Heat Content from 0 to 300 meters (grey), 700 m (blue), and total depth (violet) from ORAS4, as represented by its 5 ensemble members. The time series show monthly anomalies smoothed with a 12-month running mean, with respect to the 1958–1965 base period. Hatching extends over the range of the ensemble members and hence the spread gives a measure of the uncertainty as represented by ORAS4 (which does not cover all sources of uncertainty). The vertical colored bars indicate a two year interval following the volcanic eruptions with a 6 month lead (owing to the 12-month running mean), and the 1997–98 El Niño event again with 6 months on either side. On lower right, the linear slope for a set of global heating rates (W/m2) is given.

The Data

In this paper, the authors used ocean heat content data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ORAS4). A reanalysisis a climate or weather model simulation of the past that incorporates data from historical observations. In the case of ORAS4, this includes ocean temperature measurements from bathythermographs and the Argo buoys, and other types of data like sea level andsurface temperatures. The ORAS4 data span from 1958 to the present, and have a high 1°x1° horizontal resolution, as well as 42 vertical layers. As the authors describe the data set,

"ORAS4 has been produced by combining, every 10 days, the output of an ocean model forced by atmospheric
reanalysis
fluxes and quality controlled ocean observations."

Accelerated Global Warming

As illustrated in Figure 1 above, the study divides ocean warming into three layers for comparison – the uppermost 300 meters (grey), 700 meters (blue), and the full ocean depth (violet). After each of the Mt. Agung, Chichón, and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions (which cause short-term cooling by blocking sunlight), a distinct ocean cooling event is observed in the data. Additionally, after the very strong El Niño event of 1998, a cooling of the upper 300 and 700 meters of oceans is visible as a result of heat being transfered from the surface ocean to the atmosphere.

One of the clearest features in Figure 1 is the rapid warming of the oceans over the past decade. As we have previously discussed, the warming of the shallower oceans has slowed since around 2003, which certain climate contrarians have cherrypicked to try and argue that global warming has slowed. However, more heat accumulated in the deeper oceans below 700 meters during this period. The authors describe the ocean warming since 1999 as,

<

/p>

"the most sustained warming
trend
in this record of
OHC
. Indeed, recent warming rates of the waters below 700m appear to be unprecedented."

Their results in this respect are very similar the main conclusion of Nuccitelli et al. (2012), in which we noted that recently, warming of the oceans below 700 meters accounts for about 30% of overall ocean and global warming. Likewise, this new study concludes,

"In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming
trend
."

The warming of the oceans below 700 meters has also been identified by Levitus et al. (2012) and Von Schuckmann & Le Traon (2011), for example.

Some 'Missing Heat' Found

Kevin Trenberth's past comments about 'missing heat' drew considerable attention. The phrase refers to the fact that the heat accumulation on Earth since about 2004 (e.g. from warming oceans, air, and land, and melting ice) that instruments were able to measure could not account for the amount of global heat accumulation we expected to see, based on the energy imbalance caused by the increased greenhouse effect, as measured by satellites at the top of the Earth's atmosphere.

These new estimates of deeper ocean heat content go a long way towards resolving that 'missing heat' mystery. There is still some discrepancy remaining, which could be due to errors in the satellite measurements, the ocean heat content measurements, or both. But the discrepancy is now significantly smaller, and will be addressed in further detail in a follow-up paper by these scientists.

So what's causing this transfer of heat to the deeper ocean layers? The authors suggest that it is a result of changes in winds related to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and more frequent La Niña events.

Good News for Climate Sensitivity? Probably Not

Recently there have been some studies and comments by a few climate scientists that based on the slowed global surface warming over the past decade, estimates of the Earth's overall equilibrium climate sensitivity (the total amount of global surface warming in response to the increased greenhouse effect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) may be a bit too high. However, as we previously discussed, these studies and comments tend to neglect the warming of the deep oceans below 700 meters.

Does the warming of the deep ocean support these arguments for lower equilibriumclimate sensitivity? Probably not, as Trenberth explained (via personal communication),

"it contributes to the overall warming of the deep ocean that has to occur for the system to equilibrate. It speeds that process up. It means less short term warming at the surface but at the expense of a greater earlier long-term warming, and faster sea level rise."

So the slowed warming at the surface is only temporary, and consistent with the 'hiatus decades' described by Meehl et al. (2011). The global warming end result will be the same, but the pattern of surface warming over time may be different than we expect.

The real problem is that in the meantime, we have allowed the temporarily slowed surface warming to lull us into a false sense of security, with many people wrongly believing global warming has paused when in reality it has accelerated.

Global Warming Wake Up Call

Perhaps the most important result of this paper is the confirmation that while many people wrongly believe global warming has stalled over the past 10–15 years, in reality that period is "the most sustained warming trend" in the past half century. Global warming has not paused, it has accelerated.

The paper is also a significant step in resolving the 'missing heat' issue, and is a good illustration why arguments for somewhat lower climate sensitivity are fundamentally flawed if they fail to account for the warming of the oceans below 700 meters.

Most importantly, everybody (climate scientists and contrarians included) must learn to stop equating surface and shallow ocean warming with global warming. In fact, as Roger Pielke Sr. has pointed out, "ocean heat content change [is] the most appropriate metric to diagnose global warming." While he has focused on the shallow oceans, actually we need to measure global warming by accounting for all changes in global heat content, including the deeper oceans. Otherwise we can easily fool ourselves into underestimating the danger of the climate problem we face.

http://skepticalscience.com/new-research-confirms-global-warming-has-accelerated.html

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A 2011 magnitude 5.7 quake near Prague, Okla., apparently triggered by wastewater injection, buckled U.S. Highway 62. Credit: (ohn Leeman

A new study in the journal Geology is the latest to tie a string of unusual earthquakes, in this case, in central Oklahoma, to the injection of wastewater deep underground. Researchers now say that the magnitude 5.7 earthquake near Prague, Okla., on Nov. 6, 2011, may also be the largest ever linked to wastewater injection. Felt as far off as Milwaukee, more than 800 miles away, the quake—the biggest ever recorded in Oklahoma—destroyed 14 homes, buckled a federal highway and left two people injured. Small earthquakes continue to be recorded in the area. The study appeared today in the journal's early online edition.

The recent boom in U.S. energy production has produced massive amounts of wastewater. The water is used both in hydrofracking, which cracks open rocks to release natural gas, and in coaxing petroleum out of conventional oil wells. In both cases, the brine and chemical-laced water has to be disposed of, often by injecting it back underground elsewhere, where it has the potential to trigger earthquakes. The water linked to the Prague quakes was a byproduct of oil extraction at one set of oil wells, and was pumped into another set of depleted oil wells targeted for waste storage.

Scientists have linked a rising number of quakes in normally calm parts of Arkansas, Texas, Ohio and Colorado to below-ground injection. In the last four years, the number of quakes in the middle of the United States jumped 11-fold from the three decades prior, the authors of the Geology study estimate. Last year, a group at the U.S. Geological Survey also attributed a remarkable rise in small- to mid-size quakes in the region to humans. The risk is serious enough that the National Academy of Sciences, in a report last year called for further research to "understand, limit and respond" to induced seismic events. Despite these studies, wastewater injection continues near the Oklahoma earthquakes.

The magnitude 5.7 quake near Prague was preceded by a 5.0 shock and followed by thousands of aftershocks. What made the swarm unusual is that wastewater had been pumped into abandoned oil wells nearby for 17 years without incident. In the study, researchers hypothesize that as wastewater replenished compartments once filled with oil, the pressure to keep the fluid going down had to be ratcheted up. As pressure built up, a known fault—known to geologists as the Wilzetta fault—jumped. "When you overpressure the fault, you reduce the stress that's pinning the fault into place and that's when earthquakes happen," said study coauthor Heather Savage, a geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

The amount of wastewater injected into the well was relatively small, yet it triggered a cascading series of tremors that led to the main shock, said study co-author Geoffrey Abers, also a seismologist at Lamont-Doherty. "There's something important about getting unexpectedly large earthquakes out of small systems that we have discovered here," he said. The observations mean that "the risk of humans inducing large earthquakes from even small injection activities is probably higher" than previously thought, he said.

Hours after the first magnitude 5.0 quake on Nov. 5, 2011, University of Oklahoma seismologist Katie Keranen rushed to install the first three of several dozen seismographs to record aftershocks. That night, on Nov. 6, the magnitude 5.7 main shock hit and Keranen watched as her house began to shake for what she said felt like 20 seconds. "It was clearly a significant event," said Keranen, the Geology study's lead author. "I gathered more equipment, more students, and headed to the field the next morning to deploy more stations."

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University of Oklahoma seismologist Katie Keranen (left) and Oklahoma State University geophysicist Estella Atekwana install a seismometer following a series of earlier quakes. Credit: Shannon Dulin

Keranen's recordings of the magnitude 5.7 quake, and the aftershocks that followed, showed that the first Wilzetta fault rupture was no more than 650 feet from active injection wells and perhaps much closer, in the same sedimentary rocks, the study says. Further, wellhead records showed that after 13 years of pumping at zero to low pressure, injection pressure rose more than 10-fold from 2001 to 2006, the study says.

The Oklahoma Geological Survey has yet to issue an official account of the sequence, and wastewater injection at the site continues. In a statement responding to the paper, Survey seismologist Austin Holland said the study showed the earthquake sequence could have been triggered by the injections. But, he said, "it is still the opinion of those at the Oklahoma Geological Survey that these earthquakes could be naturally occurring. There remain many open questions, and more scientific investigations are underway on this sequence of earthquakes and many others within the state of Oklahoma."

The risk of setting off earthquakes by injecting fluid underground has been known since at least the 1960s, when injection at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal near Denver was suspended after a quake estimated at magnitude 4.8 or greater struck nearby—the largest tied to wastewater disposal until the one near Prague, Okla. A series of similar incidents have emerged recently. University of Memphis seismologist Stephen Horton in a study last year linked a rise in earthquakes in north-central Arkansas to nearby injection wells. University of Texas, Austin, seismologist Cliff Frohlich in a 2011 study tied earthquake swarms at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport to a brine disposal well a third of a mile away. In Ohio, Lamont-Doherty seismologists Won-Young Kim and John Armbruster traced a series of 2011 earthquakes near Youngstown to a nearby disposal well. That well has since been shut down, and Ohio has tightened its waste-injection rules.

Wastewater injection is not the only way that people can touch off quakes. Evidence suggests that geothermal drilling, impoundment of water behind dams, enhanced oil recovery, solution salt mining and rock quarrying also can trigger seismic events. (Hydrofracking itself is not implicated in significant earthquakes; the amount of water used is usually not enough to produce substantial shaking.) The largest known earthquakes attributed to humans may be the two magnitude 7.0 events that shook the Gazli gas fields of Soviet Uzbekistan in 1976, followed by a third magnitude 7.0 quake eight years later. In a 1985 study in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Lamont-Doherty researchers David Simpson and William Leith hypothesized that the quakes were human-induced but noted that a lack of information prevented them from linking the events to gas production or other triggers. In 2009, a geothermal energy project in Basel, Switzerland, was canceled after development activities apparently led to a series of quakes of up to magnitude 3.4 that caused some $8 million in damage to surrounding properties.

In many of the wastewater injection cases documented so far, earthquakes followed within days or months of fluid injection starting. In contrast, the Oklahoma swarm happened years after injection began, similar to swarms at the Cogdell oil field in West Texas and the Fort St. John area of British Columbia.

The Wilzetta fault system remains under stress, the study's authors say, yet regulators continue to allow injection into nearby wells. Ideally, injection should be kept away from known faults and companies should be required to provide detailed records of how much fluid they are pumping underground and at what pressure, said Keranen. The study authors also recommend sub-surface monitoring of fluid pressure for earthquake warning signs. Further research is needed but at a minimum, "there should be careful monitoring in regions where you have injection wells and protocols for stopping pumping even when small earthquakes are detected," said Abers. In a recent op-ed in the Albany (N.Y.) Times Union, Abers argued that New York should consider the risk of induced earthquakes from fluid injection in weighing whether to allow hydraulic fracturing to extract the state's shale gas reserves. Journal reference: Geology Provided by Columbia University

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-03-wastewater-spurred-biggest-earthquake.html#jCp

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